Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, with the latest New York Times poll before the election showing Harris narrowly ahead (but within the margin of error) in four of the seven states. , Trump ahead in one and a tie in two others — while an Emerson College poll showed the opposite on Monday.

Important facts

Big number

1.1 points. That's Harris' lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

tangent

According to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll Thursday, Harris has a 49% to 48% lead among voters in all seven battlegrounds, a statistical tie — but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning , that there is still a lot of scope for The Race for Change.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by less than one point in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)