Here's who's winning between Trump and Harris in the latest presidential polls

Topline

According to a series of polls this month, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seemingly dead heat less than five weeks before the election, with the last four major polls showing Harris maintaining a national lead despite this the case could be tightening.

Important facts

Big number

2. This is how many points Harris is ahead of Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics poll average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's average shows Harris with a 2.5-point lead, and Nate Silver sees Harris 3.1 points higher in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

According to a Cook Political Report poll released Wednesday, Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states that are expected to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Harris is ahead of Trump in five states, Trump is two points ahead in Georgia and they are tied in North Carolina.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, that lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% supported Harris, compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said , they weren't sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous peaks for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll . The survey had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Polls leading up to the debate showed that Harris' polling increase appeared to be stabilizing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters from September 3-5 that showed Harris leading 49% to 48%. ahead of Trump, compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters across all demographic groups viewed Harris' performance in the September 10 debate positively. Overall, 67% said she did well, compared to 40% who said the same goes for Trump. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris was up 52% ​​to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters , essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate last week.

tangent

Harris increased Trump's lead in Iowa over Biden from 18 points in June in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, who is known for her accuracy reduced by four points.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of defying calls from his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination in a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris' surge in the polls coincides with a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm is at 71%. stagnates. according to a Monmouth University survey released Aug. 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate – but she largely didn't change voters' minds (Forbes)

Trump's lead over Biden and Harris widened after RNC poll finds HarrisX/Forbes (Forbes)

Here's how Kamala Harris performs against Trump in polls – while Biden drops out and supports Harris (Forbes)

Harris' lead over Trump remains unchanged after DNC, first poll results (Forbes)