How aggressively should the Cubs pursue NPB starter Tomoyuki Sugano? – Boys

In an offseason where there appears to be a relatively large number of starting players available in free agency, aging Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano is receiving less attention than if he had come over two or three years ago. However, the 35-year-old Sugano will likely sign with an MLB team this year after a decade and develop into one of the top starters in the NPB. Because he has waited so long to cross the Pacific Ocean this way, he is exempt from the postal system and cannot sign with a team for anything more than cash.

Twitter user @bouno05, a top Japanese sabermetrician, has created an app that allows visitors to easily view summaries of pitchers' skills and specific data about their arsenals using NPB data. It's a wonderful resource, and the only Japanese you have to decipher to use it is the player's name Kanji Characters. The rest is in English, although you still have to do a small translation step (blame George Washington) to use it comfortably: all speed values ​​given are in kilometers per hour.

This is an excellent resource for us American fans hoping to gain insight into Japanese hurlers who may be coming to the United States for several reasons. First, it is much easier to understand how a pitcher's skills might transfer between these two leagues by studying his skills directly rather than relying on inaccurate scouting reports, videos in a language we don't understand, and superficial statistics support very different hitters than the ones these guys will face in the US. (In general, we should make greater efforts to learn Japanese and Spanish; these are the languages ​​of baseball, as is English. However, at the moment, my Spanish is far behind my English, and my Japanese is even much worse than my Spanish, so It's immensely helpful to have a resource that covers far more than half of my life.)

Secondly, however, it is insightful in that it shows us what changes a pitcher who has already moved from the NPB to the MLB made in the process. For example, here is Shota Imanaga's ad from the app for his time in the NPB in 2023:

This record counts Imanaga's impressive splitter as a switch player, but otherwise this is easy to read and understand – and it tells us some unexpected things about Imanaga heading into his rookie campaign with the Cubs. When he first began facing American hitters, Imanaga lived essentially as a two-pitch pitcher for a long time, but this shows that he varied his pitch mix considerably more than he did at NPB, as he later did in his first season with the Cubs began to do.

Imanaga threw his splitter much less against lefties in his final season in Japan than he did in 2024 for the Cubs. It is not in itself surprising that he used such an unusual offering more often against a new and unfamiliar group of opponents, but it confirms the feeling one had while watching: that he has adapted greatly over time, and that This was the source of both some of his struggles and much of his success.

If we have Imanaga's pitch mix details from Japan as a template (with a year of MLB data to help us contextualize and translate that information), it's easier to evaluate Sugano, even if he's four years older than Imanaga when he made his move to the league and even though he throws right-handed. Here are Sugano's dates for 2024.

Many things immediately catch the eye. Sugano's fastball averages around 92 mph, which is disappointing, and it's pretty clear that it doesn't have the same special characteristics as Imanaga's — at least not the way he's thrown it this year. His Stuff+ grades are slightly less impressive overall than Imanaga's, as these grades only compare pitchers to their NPB cohort. As currently constructed, Sugano's fastball is well below MLB standards, and the concern is that he will be hit very, very hard.

But also check out all of his other offers. He'll likely streamline his arsenal a bit for each hitter's handedness as he moves to a new group of opponents, just like Imanaga did, and he has a wide range of weapons to choose from. Also note the little heatmaps showing the location of his stuff. These neatly explain how Sugano managed to walk 16 and allow just six home runs in 156 innings that year. Can he repeat that against MLB hitters? No. But his skills are so good that he can almost certainly surpass his raw grades.

Whichever team signs Sugano will also inform the 35-year-old of some changes in his approach towards the end of his career that could help his arsenal improve. Look at where he threw his fastballs to right-handed batters last year. It positions his cutter and slider there well, but it's no wonder he gets poor stuff+ returns and low whiff rates when he tries to do the old 1990s thing of hitting the outside corner at the knees punctured as often as possible. If he's willing, an MLB club with that heater will let him throw to the top third of the zone, and his strikeout rate will go up, even if he gives up a few home runs in the process.

Imanaga's success is just the latest in a line of experienced Japanese hurlers who have done very well upon their arrival in the United States, and it is evidence that the hurlers in control are transferring their success to this side as well of the ocean. Sugano doesn't profile as an ace and he figures to be in line for a shorter contract than the deals signed by Imanaga and Kodai Senga in recent years, but he has real potential as an underrated starter in the middle rotation. At first glance, he looks very similar to Javier Assad, with an added degree of leadership. This is a very, very good pitcher.

With Seiya Suzuki and Imanaga already in the mix, the Cubs have further incentive to seriously consider signing Sugano as long as his price remains reasonable. They won't surpass the Dodgers as the current MLB team in Japan, but there is no reason why they can't permanently and permanently establish themselves as the second team for Japanese MLB fans across the country. If Imanaga and Sugano could start alongside Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani when the Cubs and Dodgers open next season in Tokyo, it could already be an incredible moment and reach new heights for the league and its international fan base.

In a perfect world, the Cubs could add two starters this winter: one who slots in at or near the beginning of their rotation, and one who could slide into the back end. Sugano profiles better than the latter, but his signing could also make it easier to win over the former. We can talk more about why that might be later this week. For now, the important takeaway is that specific data on Sugano's skill set paints a picture of him as a very good command artist, albeit without as clear a niche in the MLB as Imanaga. If he can adapt as well as Imanaga this season, he could be hugely valuable – and a rare bargain.