Hurricane Milton A severe storm surge, wind threat for Florida

Hurricane Milton continues to pose an extremely serious threat to Florida, where its potentially historic impact will bring destructive, life-threatening storm surge, widespread wind damage, flooding rainfall and tornadoes starting Wednesday.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most devastating hurricanes ever for West Central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said in its discussion Tuesday morning.

All preparations should be completed quickly on Tuesday. If you are in a storm surge-prone area, follow the instructions of local authorities and evacuate when instructed to do so. This is a serious situation as the National Hurricane Center is predicting a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet above the ground along Florida's western Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, as the storm surge peaks at high tide.

(CARD TRACKER: Spaghetti models and more)

Here is the current status on Milton: The center of the hurricane is 560 miles southwest of Tampa. It is a Category 4 strong wind, with winds of 155 mph as of 5 a.m. EDT, heading east-northeast at 12 mph.

Milton reached a maximum intensity of 180 miles per hour on Monday, making it one of the most powerful Atlantic basin hurricanes ever.

An eyewall replacement cycle caused Milton's intensity to dip a bit overnight, but it remains a serious threat for Florida.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings apply here: A hurricane warning is in effect for much of Florida's western Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach north to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. These warnings also extend inland across Central Florida, including Orlando. This means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or more) are expected within the warning area typically within 36 hours, in this case Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours.

Various tropical storm warnings and hurricane warnings cover other parts of Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern South Carolina, as shown in the map below.

A storm surge warning extends from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. This means that a life-threatening rise in water levels due to storm surge can generally be expected in the region within 36 hours.

Here is the current forecast for timing and intensity: The forecast calls for Milton to continue to experience gradual weakening as it approaches Florida due to increasing wind shear and dry air, but it should remain a major hurricane making landfall later Wednesday into early Thursday.

It is important to note that this weakening will not reduce the impacts we are seeing from Milton, including storm surges and damaging winds. Milton also grows larger as it approaches Florida, allowing the effects of wind, storm surge and rainfall to spread over a larger area.

In short, do not be careless if you see Milton weakening upon landfall, as this is expected and the hurricane will continue to pose an extremely serious threat to Florida.

I​impacts forecast

Storm surge

The National Hurricane Center's latest forecast calls for storm surge to reach up to 10 to 15 feet above the ground when the peak of the storm surge coincides with high tide along Florida's west-central Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Storm surge could reach up to 6 to 10 feet south of Fort Myers Beach and in areas north of Tampa Bay.

If the high end of the storm surge forecast for the Tampa Bay area comes to pass, it would be the highest there in more than a century.

Storm surge will be most destructive near and south of where the center of the storm crosses the coast. As previously mentioned, if you are in an area prone to storm surges, you should follow the advice of local authorities and evacuate when ordered.

The storm surge was expected to begin strengthening Wednesday before expected to peak Wednesday evening into early Thursday.

Much of Florida's west coast will be low tide on Wednesday afternoon and high tide on Thursday morning.

Some storm surge could also flood parts of Florida's east coast and coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina as winds blow onshore as Milton passes Wednesday night into Thursday.

Wind damage

Tropical storm conditions could hit West Florida as early as early Wednesday, meaning all preparations should be complete by then.

The strongest winds, which can cause structural damage, down trees and knock out power, occur near where the center of Milton crosses the coast in west central Florida and then moves inland through central Florida toward Orlando. These areas may experience power outages for days.

The timing for the strongest winds will begin along the western Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon and then spread eastward over Central Florida during the first half of Thursday.

Areas further from landfall in northern and southern Florida will also experience some strong wind gusts, which could at least knock down trees and cause isolated power outages.

Below is a look at the maximum wind danger based on Milton's current track. Note that this forecast may change in future updates.

Rain flooding

Rain has drenched Florida since the weekend as a front moved across the state. Because of this rain prior to Milton's arrival and rainfall from the hurricane itself through midweek, flood warnings are in place across much of the Florida Peninsula.

Totals across the central and northern Florida Peninsula could be 5 to 12 inches, locally up to 18 inches by Thursday. This could result in significant flash flooding and river flooding.

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Tornadoes

An isolated tornado threat could develop across much of west central and southern Florida by Tuesday evening. The threat of some tornadoes will then continue Wednesday and Wednesday night across the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

Check back with Weather.com in the coming days for updates as details become clearer.