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Hurricane Milton's category is not forecasters' biggest concern

Posted on by Kennedy
Hurricane Milton's category is not forecasters' biggest concern

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Hurricane Milton, now headed for an expected landfall on Florida's west coast late Wednesday into early Thursday, has been rapidly upgraded and downgraded in recent days as forecasters grapple with the storm's destructive potential.

Its wind speeds were rated as high as a Category 5 hurricane. However, because the storm is weakening slightly, forecasters say the ranking will not reflect the storm's true potential.

The hurricane rating scale – officially known as the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale – is a rating based on maximum sustained wind speed, which ranges from 74 to 157 miles per hour or more. The scale does not take into account potentially deadly hurricane threats such as storm surges, rainfall, river flooding and tornadoes.

In the case of Milton, experts are focusing their concerns on the storm's increasing size and the potential for massive storm surges in populated areas – two things that don't factor into the category classification. (The situation was slightly different in Helene, where the storm's winds posed a greater problem as it made landfall in a less populated area with many trees and vulnerable structures.)

“Milton has the potential to become one of the most destructive hurricanes ever recorded in West Central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center warned.

Regardless of category, a life-threatening and highly destructive storm surge will occur near and south of where the eye moves ashore, AccuWeather said. In fact, despite fluctuations in wind speed, the size of the hurricane increases as it approaches Florida.

“Unlike anything else in living memory”

“Milton's wind field is expected to continue to expand as it approaches Florida,” the hurricane center said. “In fact, the official forecast shows that the field of hurricane and tropical storm force winds will roughly double by the time they make landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges and heavy rainfall will continue for a long time outside the forecast cone.”

According to Weather.com, Milton's tropical storm-force winds extended about 100 miles from the center as of midday Tuesday and could reach up to 200 miles from the center by the time Milton makes landfall.

Milton will be a storm event unlike any other hurricane in living memory in West Central Florida, with only major hurricane strikes in 1848 and 1921 comparable in scope and height to coastal flooding, WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut said Tuesday afternoon in his blog.

“The strong wind field in the eastern half of Milton will push a wall of water northward onto the shallow Gulf continental shelf,” he warned, “and a last-minute reduction in maximum winds will not reduce the extent of this onslaught.”

What is the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale?

The Saffir-Simpson scale compares wind speeds with examples of the type of damage and impacts those winds could cause in the United States. In general, damage increases by about a factor of four with each category increase.

Watch the video below for a visual breakdown of the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity for each category.

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Hurricane categories explained

A breakdown of the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity and expected damage for each category.

Ramon Padilla, USA TODAY

The scale was developed in 1969 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir as part of a United Nations project. It was later adapted in the early 1970s by meteorologist Robert Simpson and has since become an essential tool for warning the public about the potential impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, the National Hurricane Center said.

How much damage could Milton do to Florida?

The actual damage from Milton will depend on where it makes landfall and its other impacts, such as flooding, storm surges and tornadoes. But wind speed and category at landfall will be key indicators of the extent of future power outages and structural damage.

A National Hurricane Center forecast for Tuesday shows the hurricane will make landfall Wednesday evening as a strong Category 3 hurricane with winds of about 125 miles per hour.

By definition, if power increases to Cat. 4, the storm can be expected to leave a trail of “catastrophic” damage. The National Hurricane Center says Category 4 storms threaten well-built frame homes with “severe” damage that could potentially result in the loss of roofs and walls. Most trees are snapped or uprooted and power poles are toppled.

“Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months,” the hurricane center says of Category 4 storms.

A Category 3 storm is significantly weaker, but is still a major hurricane. “Power and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks following the storm,” the center says of Category 3 storms.

What is a Major Hurricane?

Although all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes of Category 3 and above are known as major hurricanes. Severe hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and loss of life. Hurricanes of all categories can cause deadly storm surges, rain-induced flooding and tornadoes.

What are the 5 hurricane categories?

Category 1 hurricane: 74-95 mph Very dangerous winds can cause some damage: Well-built frame homes could have damage to the roof, shingles, vinyl siding, and gutters. Large branches of trees break and trees with small roots can fall. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in power outages lasting a few to several days.

Category 2 hurricane: 96-110 mph Extremely dangerous winds can cause major damage: Well-built half-timbered houses can suffer major damage to the roof and facade. Many shallow-rooted trees are snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. A near-total power outage is likely, including outages that could last several days to weeks.

Category 3 hurricane (severe): 111-129 mph There will be devastating damage: Well-built half-timbered houses may suffer significant damage or have roof coverings and gable ends removed. Many trees are snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks following the storm.

Category 4 hurricane (severe): 130-156 mph Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built frame houses can suffer severe damage, with most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls lost. Most trees are snapped or uprooted and power poles are toppled. Fallen trees and utility poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages can last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Category 5 hurricane (severe): 157 mph or more Catastrophic damage will occur: a high percentage of half-timbered houses will be destroyed; The roof fails completely and the wall collapses. Fallen trees and utility poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

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