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Hurricane Rafael is heading toward the Gulf of Mexico. Is Texas standing in his way?

Posted on by Kennedy
Hurricane Rafael is heading toward the Gulf of Mexico. Is Texas standing in his way?

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According to the National Hurricane Center, two systems in the Atlantic basin – Hurricane Rafael and a disturbance northeast of the Leeward Islands – are flooding parts of the Caribbean. Rafael's planned path has taken a wild turn westward and his final destination is still in flux.

After drenching western Cuba and knocking out the island's entire power grid, Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico, still a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour. The storm is expected to weaken over the next few days and a mid-level ridge will push Rafael west toward the Texas-Mexico border.

While landfall in Texas is unlikely, storm surges and coastal flooding may occur in some parts of the coast.

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Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, meteorologists are observing a low pressure area northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center said gradual development was possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend.

AccuWeather meteorologists said the system could develop into a tropical depression or storm this week as it moves along the northern islands of the Caribbean.

The next named storm of the season will be Sara.

Here is the latest update from the NHC as of Thursday, November 7th at 7am:

Hurricane Rafael: What you should know

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

See spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Special note on spaghetti models: The illustrations span a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Will Hurricane Rafael hit Texas?

Hurricane Rafael has diverted its path from Florida and is now moving west into the Gulf of Mexico.

“Once Rafael arrives in the Gulf of Mexico, subtle differences in intensity and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on his final route,” said Bill Deger, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

Rafael's strong winds are expected to cause rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico later this week and into the early part of the weekend. These east to west waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Should Rafael make landfall, coastal flooding is likely in areas to the north and east.

According to AccuWeather, landfall in the US remains unlikely. However, residents around the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on the storm and incoming wind gusts.

National Hurricane Center map: What else is there and how likely are they to strengthen?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Near Leeward Island: A low pressure trough northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.

Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the next few days in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

  • Chance of creation within 48 hours: Low, 20 percent.
  • Educational opportunity over seven days: Low, 20 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Deputy Director Jamie Rhome Center.

The colors make it clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

“If a system is near land and has potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Hurricane Tracker: Track active storms in the Atlantic

Weather Watches and Warnings for Texas

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Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

When is Atlantic hurricane season?

Hurricane season in the Atlantic is coming to an end June 1st to November 30th.

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