Hurricane Rafael is rapidly increasing in intensity as it heads toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico

CNN
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Hurricane Rafael is rapidly strengthening in the Caribbean and is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane before hitting Cuba on Wednesday.

As of Wednesday morning, Rafael was a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 mph – just 1 mph away from Category 3 – and 130 miles from Cuba.

The storm's wind strength has increased by 50 mph in the past 24 hours, an increase well above the 35 mph needed for rapid intensification. Rapid intensification is becoming more common as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution; Rafael is the ninth storm to rapidly strengthen in the Atlantic basin this year.

After sweeping through the Caribbean, the powerful hurricane is expected to face serious resistance in the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall anywhere from the U.S. Gulf Coast to northeastern Mexico this weekend as a much weaker storm.

What threat, if any, Rafael poses to the Gulf Coast is still unclear, but it is coming into focus and a more certain forecast will be possible once the storm passes over the Gulf on Thursday.

Rafael's threat to Cuba is clear: he is expected to deliver a devastating blow in 2022, becoming the first Category 3 hurricane since Ian.

Heavy rains from the hurricane spread across Cuba on Wednesday morning and will flood the country through Thursday. Double-digit amounts of precipitation are possible. Tropical squalls blew off the country's southern coast early on Wednesday. These winds and stronger hurricane-force winds will overwhelm Cuba in the next few hours.

Rafael's strong winds also whipped up dangerous seas and could trigger a storm surge of up to 13 feet on Cuba's southern coast before landfall.

This is the second hurricane to hit Cuba in recent weeks. Hurricane Oscar devastated Cuba in late October, killing at least six people. The country's power grid is also vulnerable and has collapsed several times, including during the Oscar outbreak in October.

Rafael could become the fifth major hurricane – one of Category 3 or stronger – of the season. According to NOAA, it is the strongest hurricane to hit the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009.

It is expected to be only the fifth hurricane to hit the Gulf of Mexico in November since 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Rafael's possible route through the Gulf of Mexico later this week and weekend is slowly coming into focus, but is far from certain.

Rafael could still become the sixth named storm to hit the U.S. this season, but areas at risk are gradually being narrowed down.

Earlier in the week, forecast models showed very different possible paths for Rafael, but those models are starting to move toward a solution. Instead of a steady northwestward movement over the Gulf and landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, two major forecast models more consistently show a significant westward shift.

The hurricane center's current forecast suggests Rafael could potentially impact anywhere from Louisiana to northeastern Mexico, west of the original forecasts that had threatened Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

“If future model runs continue to show this trend, additional leftward adjustment of the NHC track may be required,” the center said Wednesday.

Storm-damaging upper-elevation winds are expected to severely deteriorate Rafael as the storm approaches the U.S. coast, regardless of where it is located. Current forecasts suggest Rafael will return to tropical storm status by the weekend.

Rafael's impact on the U.S. could be limited, but the same strong tropical moisture fueling Wednesday's storm will bring torrential rain across the Southeast.

According to the Weather Prediction Center, there is a widespread area at risk of Level 2 out of 4 flooding in portions of South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama on Wednesday. Smaller portions of Georgia and South Carolina are at risk of Level 3 out of 4 flooding .

Rain showers could lead to dangerous flash flooding, but some areas could be slow to flood as many soils are dry after a record-breaking October.

CNN's Brandon Miller, José Álvarez, Patrick Oppmann and Michael Rios contributed to this report.