Hurricane Rafael is strengthening into a Category 3 severe storm and the Florida Keys are under a tropical storm warning

TAMPA, Fla. – Hurricane Rafael developed into a severe Category 3 storm as it hit Cuba before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

As of 1 p.m. Wednesday, Rafael was at 22.0 N, 82.3 W with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and moving northwest at 14 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael will bring heavy rain, flash floods and mudslides to western Cuba on Wednesday and into Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Rafael will hit Cuba on Wednesday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC says the storm will also bring heavy rain to parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, through early Thursday.

Where will Rafael go when he reaches the Gulf?

Models have shifted westward, suggesting Rafael will move well away from Florida's Gulf Coast in the coming days.

However, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, where some storm impacts are expected Wednesday and early Thursday.

Models are divided on whether Rafael will head north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast or turn south toward Mexico.

As the storm moves through the Gulf, it is expected to weaken due to cooler water temperatures and increasing wind shear.

FOX 13 meteorologist Jim Weber says it remains to be seen whether Rafael will make landfall in the U.S. or turn south toward Mexico.

“We may see some big adjustments to the forecast throughout the day,” Weber said.

Weber says the Tampa Bay area will see cloudy skies and scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday, with most of Florida's storm impact remaining to the south.

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