Hurricane Rafael will not be like Helene or Milton

Hurricane Rafael will enter the Gulf of Mexico, and while that sounds worrying, we do not expect it to have anywhere near the magnitude of the impact of Helene or Milton.

The current forecast: The latest trajectory of this system projected by the National Hurricane Center is shown in the forecast graphic below. It is currently in the western Caribbean Sea but is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday as Hurricane Rafael.

If you look closely at this graph, you may notice that the forecast winds are not as strong as we saw at Helene and Milton. You may also notice that the forecast winds decrease towards the end of the cone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

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Why Rafael should weaken at some point: To be clear, Rafael could have a significant impact on the Western Caribbean.

But as it moves toward the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week, it is expected to encounter conditions that will weaken rather than strengthen it. This is an environment more typical of November than the peak of hurricane season.

Wind shear: Forecast models indicate that wind shear will increase over Rafael once it is in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This increasing difference in wind speed and/or direction with height tilts a tropical cyclone and disrupts the heat engine that sustains it. If the shear is strong enough, it can blow thunderstorms away from the center and spell the system's ultimate demise.

Dry air: The same forecast models suggest Rafael could suck in dry air as it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Dry, sinking air disrupts tropical storms and hurricanes by suppressing thunderstorms and strengthening downdrafts from developing storms.

Golf not nearly as steamy: While there is still enough deep, warm water in the Caribbean Sea to withstand an intensifying storm, the warmth in the central and northern Gulf is decreasing significantly, as you can see on the map below.

While ocean heat content in Gulf waters is still higher than usual in early November, it is now about half of what it was when it broke records from late August to early October. All other factors being equal, more ocean heat will encourage stronger hurricanes.

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Neither Helene nor Milton: At the end of September, Hurricane Helene had the perfect conditions to quickly strengthen before making landfall.

As NOAA meteorologist Tomer Burg said on It also moved over extremely warm Gulf waters, causing it to quickly intensify into Cat. 4 status before landing. A rotating high low over western Kentucky dragged Helene's torrential rain and damaging winds far inland.

Hurricane Milton struggled with shear forces and dry air before making landfall in Florida. But that happened after it quickly developed over the extremely warm waters of the southern Gulf into one of the most powerful hurricanes ever in the Atlantic basin.

And one could argue that it was the Milton tornadoes – a record number for any outbreak in Florida – that represented the most memorable aspect of this hurricane.

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Jonathan Erdman is the senior meteorologist at Weather.com and has been reporting on domestic and international weather conditions since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather conditions are his favorite topics. Contact him at X (formerly Twitter), Topics, Facebook And Bluesky.