Hurricane tracker Invest 94L 2024, Nadine spaghetti models for Florida

When is the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? June 1st to November 30th, with the busiest months being between August and October.

The chances for Invest 94L to become the next named storm of the season are increasing.

Although everyone should monitor the system closely and always be prepared, do not panic. Even if it becomes a strong tropical storm or hurricane, it looks like Florida may (finally) escape the direct impacts of this storm. That's welcome news for a state hit by two hurricanes in less than two weeks.

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Florida has been hit by three hurricanes so far this season: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. According to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin, puts 2024 on a par with five other years in which the most hurricanes made landfall in Florida in a single season.

The next named storm of the season will be Nadine.

Here's what you should know about Invest 94L:

Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

According to the National Hurricane Center, a low pressure area called Invest 94L is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic.

➤ Invest in 94L spaghetti models

This system is expected to move generally westward and environmental conditions may become more favorable for gradual development by mid to late this week.

A tropical depression could form as the system begins to move west-northwestward and approaches or approaches the Leeward Islands later this week.

Chance of emergence within 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
Educational opportunity over 7 days: medium, 60 percent.

AccuWeather meteorologists have begun calling Invest 94L a “tropical rain storm” to raise public awareness of the system.

Invest in 94L spaghetti models

Special note on spaghetti models: The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine or Hurricane Nadine?

Right now, Invest 94L is “struggling to organize,” AccuWeather senior hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a phone interview on Tuesday, Oct. 15. We're living in a hostile environment right now, dealing with wind shear and dry air has.

“It looks like developments will be slow over the next few days. The window for development into a tropical storm will open toward the end of the week, likely Thursday or Friday, as wind shear decreases. AccuWeather forecasts that it will become a tropical storm by Thursday night, early Friday, or at the earliest Thursday afternoon.

Where could potential Tropical Storm Nadine go?

DaSilva offered three different scenarios for where Invest 94L could go:

A path north of the Virgin Islands
A route via Hispaniola
A path south of Hispaniola

What could the three possible paths mean for Florida and Palm Beach County?

Northern route: As Invest 94L moves north of the Virgin Islands, it could potentially move near Puerto Rico between Thursday afternoon (October 17) and Saturday morning (October 19).
- “That's a pretty favorable environment for strengthening and it could become a strong tropical storm or hurricane on Friday or Saturday. That possibility is on the table,” DaSilva said.
- “By the time it approaches the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos Islands, wind shear increases significantly and it would most likely be torn apart. The likelihood of a direct impact on Florida is very low.”
- Indirect impacts include rough surf and rip currents Sunday and Monday, DaSilva said.

About Hispaniola: According to DaSilva, this is currently the most likely path. From Saturday afternoon into Sunday, the storm could move into Hispaniola, where it is expected to be torn apart by high mountains.
- But those same mountains “could displace a lot of precipitation. In Haiti and the Dominican Republic we saw very, very heavy rains.”
Southern lane: As Invest 94L moves south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and avoids mountains, it could become stronger in the Caribbean. “At this point, that scenario is unlikely,” DaSilva said.
- But if it does, it will likely move west toward Mexico, with no direct impact on Florida and the United States

This time, wind shear is helping protect Florida and Palm Beach County

“Wind shear should protect Florida from Invest 94L,” DaSilva said. “That's good news. We definitely don’t need another one.”

What is an investment?

As an abbreviation for “investigation,” the National Hurricane Center uses the term “invest” for areas of low pressure that it is monitoring for the possible development of a tropical depression or storm.

Investments are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. Typically these are clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they are designated as an investment area does not guarantee that they will develop into a tropical cyclone.

The values range from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99 it starts over and the next investment would be 90.

Once something has been designated as an investment, specialized data sets and computer modeling can begin, including planning Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.

National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Meteorologists Watching Now?

Systems are currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

➤ Tropics Watch, October 15th: View the latest tracking information from the National Hurricane Center

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