In the final stretch in Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state

But it's not clear whether the anti-tariff message will succeed in Pennsylvania. As it stands, Casey, who is himself embroiled in a tough re-election campaign, is running an ad bragging about supporting Trump's tariffs during his first term – a message that is making Trump's allies particularly confident about the former's standing president in the state.

“It will be particularly well received in Pennsylvania,” said Rep. Josh Kail, chairman of the state House Republican Campaign Committee.

And a senior Trump adviser thought the state was doing well for the former president in large part because of economic concerns. This person also pointed to the Casey ad as further evidence.

Although Trump's advertising offensive focused primarily on immigration, his economic message – namely blaming Harris for “skyrocketing” prices – was also a staple of his over-the-air campaign, AdImpact tracking showed.

“He clearly spent a lot of attention and a lot of time and resources there,” this person said of Pennsylvania. “I think the message is right. I mean, honestly, Harris broke it, Trump will fix it, I think that speaks almost specifically to Pennsylvania because of the economy. Your concerns about the fossil fuel industry, particularly fracking.”

The fight on the edge

Trump is the only Republican to win Pennsylvania in a presidential election in the last three decades. And no Republican has won a high-profile statewide race here since his victory in 2016.

But even among Democrats there is little doubt about Trump's staying power in the state. And after the July attack, officials and activists said his brand here had only grown stronger.

“You had a transformative, transformative situation with the assassination,” Fetterman said, adding, “And then I would never tell anyone to deny what your eyes show. I mean, drive around, look at the pictures and all that kind of stuff.”

Trump has also benefited from a sense among his supporters that publicly supporting him is no longer taboo and that his coalition has morphed into something else compared to 2016 and 2020.

That dynamic was evident at a panel discussion with former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and television psychologist Phil McGraw in Lancaster, where Republicans billing themselves as “Make America Healthy Again” packed a sports venue and united against the effects of “Make America Healthy Again” protested. Seed oils” and the rate of chronic diseases.

“I feel like it’s becoming a cool kind of rebel to vote for Trump,” Kail said. “I just don’t feel like there’s that shyness among Trump supporters anymore.”

More concretely, the Trump campaign believes its chances in the state are good due to positive changes in voter registration and poll numbers that are better than in his previous elections.

“We are confident,” said a Trump campaign official. “We're also through 2022 and certainly 2020, so it's not lost for us…there's still a very real and significant chance that we could lose this.”

“I'm just not used to us being ahead in any poll in any situation, and we are now,” this person added. “Talk to some of the older people here and they get a lot of 2016 vibes.”

Still, Democrats see much to uncover in the early voting data — particularly that Democratic women and Democratic men are the two largest groups who did not vote in 2020 elections. After President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Democrats said they “succeeded in turning enthusiasm over Harris into a wave of volunteers and activist energy.” This culminated on Saturday when her volunteers knocked on more than 800,000 doors in the state in one day, her campaign said.

“No more 80-year-olds!” said Ryan Nash, 38, a Harris supporter who lives in Bucks County. “I'm not saying Biden doesn't care, but he won't be here much longer and it's nice to have people (running for office) who have a future ahead of them.”

Trump, on the other hand, is targeting his base game narrowly at low-propensity voters, while much of the GOP recruiting effort has been outsourced to a super PAC funded largely by Elon Musk.