Iran could attack Saudi oil sites in revenge for an Israeli attack

• Iran has threatened to attack Saudi oil sites if the Gulf state supports an Israeli attack.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi conveyed the message to Saudi officials, according to Reuters.
• The regional chaos threatens to destroy the ceasefire between the rivals.

The fragile ceasefire between long-time regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia could fall apart if Gulf states allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran.

Iranian sources told Reuters that the country's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, recently traveled to Riyadh and warned Saudi officials that Iran would respond if it allowed Israel to use its airspace to attack the Islamic Republic.

He reportedly told officials that Iran-backed militias in Iraq or the Houthi militias in Yemen could be used against Saudi Arabia.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, told Reuters: “The Iranians have said: 'If the Gulf states open their airspace to Israel, it would be an act of war.'

Separately, the Wall Street Journal, citing Arab officials, reported that Iran had warned through covert channels that it could target Gulf states and U.S. allies in the broader Middle East if their territories or airspace were targeted by Israel for attacks would be used by Iran.

Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all of which host U.S. military bases, were named as countries that Iran has threatened with retaliation.

The reports come at a time when tensions in the region are rapidly escalating.

Israel has escalated attacks on the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon in recent weeks, with Iran responding with a rocket attack on Israel on October 1.

Israeli leaders have vowed to respond to the Iranian attack. Some, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet, called on Israel to target Iran's nuclear program. Other options include an attack on Iran's oil facilities.

Such an attack could trigger an Iranian attack on the Gulf states that it believes enabled the attack, as well as on Israel's civilian infrastructure.

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Arab sources told Reuters they had been lobbying the United States to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian oil facilities, and the source reported that an Israeli strike using its airspace was off the table.

Israel could still attack Iran through routes through Syria or Iraq, but US military cooperation in the Gulf states is problematic.

An Iranian attack would likely destroy the ceasefire brokered by China between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, which allowed the long-time rivals to establish diplomatic contacts.

For decades, the states had waged a proxy war against each other, most recently in Yemen, where Iran backed the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia waged a campaign to support government troops in the country's civil war.

Amid the hostilities, Iran orchestrated attacks on Saudi oil facilities in the east of the country in 2019.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states had formed a loosely allied bloc with U.S. support to curb Iran's regional influence, an arrangement the U.S. has sought to strengthen in recent years.

Among the key agreements underlying the ceasefire was an agreement by Iran to stop supporting Houthi fighters in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while the Saudis agreed to stop supporting Sunni fighters in Iran.

Analysts say the ceasefire partly reflects Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman's desire to stabilize the region and transform the Saudi economy as part of his Vision 2030 project.

Despite the flare-up of violence between Israel and Iran following the terrorist attacks by the Iranian-backed Hamas militia on October 7, 2023, the ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and Iran has largely held.

This is despite reports that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may have helped Israel and its allies fire Iranian missiles in an earlier attack on Israel in April.

In a recent essay for the European Council for Foreign Relations, analysts stressed that diplomatic engagement between Iran and Saudi Arabia could be crucial to resolving flaring regional tensions.

“Although it has not led to conflict resolution, this détente has helped contain regional escalation,” they noted.

Any attack on Saudi oil facilities could drive prices significantly higher. The kingdom is the world's largest crude oil exporter and plays a significant role as de facto leader

OPEC, the cartel of oil producing nations.

The price of Brent crude has risen 12% over the past month to just under $79 a barrel on Friday. However, it is still well below the increase following Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, when prices rose to over $110 a barrel.