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Israel wins over Iran and Hezbollah, says Middle East expert – Israel News

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Israel wins over Iran and Hezbollah, says Middle East expert – Israel News

Professor Amatzya Baram, an expert in Middle East and Persian Gulf studies, spoke to Maariv on Monday and made important points about Hezbollah's capabilities and Iran's policy regarding the use of long-range precision missiles.

“Hezbollah operatives are doing everything they can except one thing – using the heavy and precise strategic missiles,” Baram noted. He estimated that the Iranians had deliberately stored these missiles and instructed Hezbollah not to fire them.

“It is important for the Iranians that we feel the threat of missiles over our heads. Now the Iranians are in direct confrontation with us, not through proxies. The Iranians do not know where the confrontation will develop, so it is very important for them that Hezbollah retains its long-range, precise strategic missiles. In their view, if Israel knows that these missile threats exist, it will proceed with greater caution than if Hezbollah did not have these weapons.

According to him, although Hezbollah has many instruments, including drones, missiles and rockets, these are limited in their range and rarely reach significant distances, such as Tel Aviv.

“In my opinion they have few heavy long-range missiles left – they can reach Krayot, Acre, Nahariya and even Karmiel, but have difficulty reaching Haifa and deeper into the country. In practice, the volume of kills they carried out is significantly lower than the IDF estimates before the outbreak of war. “The military assumed that Iron Dome would not be able to keep up with the kill rate at all,” Baram claimed.

An Iranian Shahed-171 drone dropped a bomb in Iran as part of a military exercise in the Gulf (Source: REUTERS)

“Before the war, the IDF estimated Hezbollah’s launch rate at about 1,500 rockets per day – whereas today there are about 200 Hezbollah launches per day against Israel,” Baram added.

“This fact indicates serious damage to the terrorist organization’s starting positions and manpower.”

Baram stressed that the ability to direct massive missile volleys is even more limited due to the lack of an organized command backbone and consistent coordination.

“The IDF eliminated approximately 3,000 Hezbollah field operatives who were eliminated or wounded. We have hit the operators and the command structure hard, but there are still terrorist cells in the organization that can independently operate missiles and drones. As we see, they are.” “This action shows a certain level of coordination between Hezbollah cells,” he said.

Iran's control over Hezbollah

Baram pointed to another trend in the organization: There have been disruptions in Iranian control of Hezbollah in recent months.

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“The Iranians are fighting to regain control of the organization and its details, including military mechanisms,” he said. “Part of the Iranian command in Lebanon and Syria, including Quds Force officers, were hit. This fact made the transfer of ammunition difficult.” It is not surprising that the Iranians have difficulty concentrating and commanding Hezbollah.

However, he estimated that Iran could seek to reorganize Hezbollah in the coming months, build a strong command structure and increase its power.

“This is the time to take advantage of the disruption and hit the organization as much as possible,” Baram argued. In his opinion, it is important to hit the command structures while reorganizing the Iranian armed forces.

Professor Baram added interesting information about the Quds Force's struggle with the assassination of top commanders, which has undermined its activities and raised fears of a crisis.

“Recently, Iran has struggled with unclear internal challenges within the Quds Force. Ismail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, mysteriously disappeared, and for a time there were concerns that he had either been eliminated or was suspected of treason. He reappeared publicly at the memorial ceremony for the eliminated Quds Force deputy, but then disappeared again. There is a sense that the Quds Force is undergoing significant structural changes.

In conclusion, Baram said that this situation has delayed Hezbollah's reorganization and stressed the importance of attacking Hezbollah in its current state to disrupt rehabilitation efforts.

“Hezbollah is currently at its weakest point since it was founded by Khamenei in 1982, and we must exploit this weakness.”



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