Jill Stein's chances of blocking Kamala Harris are winning in key swing states

While Green Party candidate Jill Stein is unlikely to win the presidency, her support in key battleground Blue Wall states could be crucial as polls show the margins between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are wafer thin.

Stein, who is running in key swing states including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, has faced criticism from Democrats in recent weeks as the race tightened and claims she gave Trump, the GOP nominee, an advantage.

On Friday, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) released a new ad titled “Crucial” aimed at voters in those three states and accusing Stein of siphoning off support from Harris, the Democratic nominee. The ad shows Stein's face morphing into Trump's, with the message: “A vote for Stein is truly a vote for Trump.”

The ad also includes a video clip of Trump speaking at a June campaign rally in Philadelphia and saying, “Jill Stein, I like her a lot. Do you know why? She takes 100 percent from them (the Democrats).”

While Democrats say voters who support Stein might lean Democratic, it is unclear whether all of those voters would have otherwise supported Harris or chosen not to vote at all.

Stein's campaign spokesman said this previously Newsweek One email reads: “The idea that Democrats and Republicans own everyone's vote and that the Greens supposedly 'take away' votes from the political establishment is absurd. No candidate owns your vote, they have to earn your vote.”

Harris' clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three battleground blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump's most efficient path to 270 votes in the Electoral College would be to win the swing states North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, but President Joe Biden prevailed in 2020.

Newsweek reached out to Stein and Harris' campaign via email Sunday seeking comment.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State is crucial in the presidential race because the winner of Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes – more than any other swing state – could decide the outcome of the 2024 election.

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/A Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in Pennsylvania found Harris leading Trump, but both lose share of the vote when third-party candidates like Stein are included.

The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to 47 percent for Trump. However, when third-party candidates are taken into account, Harris drops to 49 percent and Trump to 45 percent, while Stein gets 1 percent and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver gets less than 1 percent. Harris' lead is within the margin of error of plus/minus 3.8 percentage points.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll of 1,412 likely voters conducted Oct. 3-7 found that Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, Harris received 49 percent and Trump received 46 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between only the Democratic and Republican candidates, Harris maintained 49 percent support, while Trump was close behind at 47 percent.

Among independents, who make up 23 percent of respondents, 43 percent support Harris, while 47 percent support Trump and 3 percent support third-party candidates, according to the poll. The survey's margin of error is plus/minus 2.6 percentage points.

With Harris' narrow lead within the margin of error, Stein's 1 percent support could be the deciding factor – if it went to Harris, it could give her an advantage over Trump, but if not, the race could just as easily swing in Trump's favor.

Aggregate polls, which provide a general overview of public opinion, are continually updated as new data is added, causing averages to shift in real time. The following percentages are for Sunday mornings.

The JustIn the overall poll, Harris is at 49 percent, ahead of Trump at 48 percent in Pennsylvania. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47.3 percent, while The Hill has Harris at 48.7 percent and Trump at 48 percent.

Wisconsin

Stein is conducting similar polls in Wisconsin. The Quinnipiac University poll of 1,073 likely voters in the state, conducted between Oct. 3 and Oct. 7, showed Trump leading Harris in the state, 48 percent to 46 percent. Stein and Oliver each secured 1 percent support.

The gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates remains the same when third-party candidates are excluded, with Trump receiving 49 percent of the vote and Harris 47 percent.

Among independents, who make up 33 percent of respondents, 47 percent support Trump, while 43 percent support Harris and 3 percent support third-party candidates, according to the poll. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A Marquette Law School poll of 882 registered voters conducted between September 18 and 26 found similar results: Stein received 1 percent of the vote and Harris was ahead by 4 percentage points, 48 ​​percent, to Trump's 44 percent . This lead is within the margin of error of plus/minus 4.4 percentage points.

Most overall polls show less than a percentage point separating Harris and Trump, underscoring the importance of Stein's vote share.

The JustIn the overall poll, Harris is leading Wisconsin with 49 percent, ahead of Trump with 48 percent. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 47.9 percent and Trump at 47.3 percent, while The Hill shows Trump up 0.1 percent, 48.4 percent, to Harris' 48.3 percent.

Michigan

While a Quinnipiac University poll of 1,007 likely voters in Michigan found that Stein is no longer in play – a stark contrast to last month's poll that put her at 2 percent – other polls suggest she remains one in the state enjoys similar support.

The poll showed Trump leading with 50 percent of the vote, Harris with 47 and Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West with 1 percent each. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Stein has spoken out against U.S. policy toward Israel during the ongoing Gaza War. Michigan has a large Arab-American community and, according to a Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) poll in late August, 40 percent of Muslim voters supported Stein, compared to just 12 percent for Harris and 18 percent for Trump.

“Democrats cannot win without the support of the Muslim American community. And that community has left the station and is not coming back unless the Democrats decide that winning the election is more important to them than committing genocide,” Stein said in a September interview with Newsweek. Israel denies committing genocide.

The JustIn the overall poll, Harris is at 49 percent, ahead of Trump at 48 percent in Michigan. FiveThirtyEight shows a tighter race, with Harris at 47.7 percent and Trump at 47.0 percent, while The Hill shows Trump up 0.8 percent, 48.7 percent, to Harris' 47.9 percent.