Johnson and Republicans are increasingly optimistic about retaining control of the House of Representatives

CNN
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Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans are increasingly optimistic about remaining in the House, believing they have defied political gravity in key suburban seats as President-elect Donald Trump pushes his party toward a possible complete conquest of Washington.

Dozens of key races have not yet been called and it could be days or weeks before the results are official. But both Republicans and Democrats in the House privately believe the GOP will remain in control, according to a half-dozen senior campaign officials.

“We’re going to keep the House,” a senior GOP campaign official said Wednesday. “The question is how big the majority is right now.”

A senior Democratic source acknowledged to CNN that with the election pending, it is unlikely the party will flip the House. However, Democrats in the House of Representatives insist that it is too early for an autopsy. The caucus will hold an internal conference call Thursday afternoon to discuss the results so far, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

It's not yet clear whether Republicans will maintain their slim five-seat lead; They could still lose Republican incumbents in blue states like California and Oregon. But the seats the GOP is expected to hold show surprising strength in places where Democrats were confident they would win, like Nebraska and Pennsylvania.

Democrats still expect to retain some key seats: Jared Golden in Maine and Marcy Kaptur in Ohio are both narrowly ahead against all odds and in Trump territory. And they flipped one seat in New York, while Democrats are bullish on two more.

But several other mandatory seats have been eliminated, including a seat in Pennsylvania and an open seat in Michigan. Another Democrat in Pennsylvania, Rep. Susan Wild, has conceded to her Republican opponent, although CNN has not yet forecast that race.

To win the House now, Democrats believe they must retain all of their remaining incumbents – including in tough areas like Washington state and Colorado – and essentially win the GOP seats in California, Oregon and Arizona, so multiple democratic sources.

“We have to deliver a perfect game, and that’s probably not going to happen,” a senior House Democratic campaign official said.

Perhaps the biggest surprise to date for both parties is Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska. Democrats had counted on being able to easily dislodge the centrist Republican, with Vice President Kamala Harris spending millions of dollars to win the election there while Trump put his money elsewhere. One Democratic activist called it a “must win” for his party to win a majority.

That race has not yet been called, but Republicans and Democrats alike expect Bacon to retain the seat.