Juan Soto Targets: MLB executives predict market for winter's top free agent

By Will Sammon, Patrick Mooney and Katie Woo

When it comes to Juan Soto, one major league team manager said, every team should at least attempt. He is The Good. He is The young. Now that the World Series is over, Soto is officially entering free agency in his prime, having hit a ridiculous .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs in his age-25 season. The kind of career numbers Soto put up before he turned 26 point him toward Cooperstown. Soto, a client of super agent Scott Boras, was set to receive a long-term contract worth over $500 million; It probably just depends on how close he gets to $600 million.

Of course, even if all 30 teams try to sign Soto – some still don't – some will have a better chance of signing the star outfielder than others.

After speaking with several executives from various teams across the league, The athlete weighed each club's chances of signing Soto and grouped them.

Stage 1: Keep spreading the news

Team:

Soto has mastered being a star in New York with flying colors. Working with Aaron Judge led to constant comparisons to the legendary duo Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. The Yankees have that kind of lore. Soto seemed to like it. At every game, fans chanted his name, waved Dominican flags and held signs asking the club to re-sign him. Soto thrived on that stage and helped the Yankees to a World Series appearance. And the failure only underscored the need to bring Soto back. What if it was just the beginning in New York?

Level 1A: The Power of Steve Kong

Team:

No one has deeper pockets than Mets owner Steve Cohen, who also has a strong hunger to win. A few years ago, Boras called Cohen “Steve Kong” while talking about how there needed to be “more Goliaths” in the MLB. Whatever that means exactly, they seem to have a great working relationship. The two chatted for a long time during the National League Championship Series in Los Angeles. After a successful first year for the club under President of Baseball Operations David Stearns and Manager Carlos Mendoza, the signing of Soto would electrify the fan base in Flushing.

Juan Soto was asked if he expected the Mets to pursue him in free agency:

“I don’t know which teams will come after me. I will definitely be open to this and every single team. No doors are closed to me. I will be available for all 30 teams.” pic.twitter.com/3VICEWeney

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) October 31, 2024

Level 1B: Always lurking

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This is the fledgling World Series superteam with the money, ambition and prestige to play anyone they want. That doesn't mean Soto prefers to turn his back on New York and play on the West Coast. But a call or text message from Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' president of baseball operations, could change the entire tenor of these negotiations.

Level 2: Rich, desperate, aggressive

They're not the front runners, but there's a case to be made for these big teams entering the Soto sweepstakes. Several executives listed the Giants and Red Sox as clubs that should be part of a sort of second tier of potential suitors.

Both the Blue Jays and Giants were finalists for Shohei Ohtani last year. San Francisco also made fun of Carlos Correa, Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge, but not out of a lack of willingness to spend money. The Giants are under a new regime, with Buster Posey taking over as head of baseball operations. Still, Posey is expected to jump-start the Giants, and his competitiveness could lead to an aggressive approach in his first winter in charge of the franchise.

Toronto has had a dismal season. Signing a megadeal for Soto would immediately impact Soto's fortunes and take some pressure off a front office that hasn't maximized Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. The Phillies also can't be ruled out as they look to extend their competitive window. “There’s an art to convincing owners to spend money,” a league source said. “Dave Dombrowski was great in it.”

Stage 3: Already had her chance

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In negotiations like this, Boras wants to engage teams at the ownership level, portraying the free agent as an overwhelming economic force while gathering information to share with the star player about how the franchise plans to build around him. Boras had particularly close relationships with Nationals owner Ted Lerner and Padres owner Peter Seidler, both of whom died in 2023, and their succession plans created new uncertainty.

Boras recently told USA Today that he was “up to his knees” in negotiations with Soto before Seidler's death, and predicted that Soto would never have been traded to the Yankees had Seidler been alive. The Nationals had traded Soto to San Diego after he rejected a 15-year, $440 million extension offer, showing a willingness to make him the highest-paid player in baseball history. One AL executive said he would put the Nationals in the top tier of this exercise.

Stage 4: Doubt

Boras would argue that a 26-year-old Hall of Fame player would fit any team's timeline. Soto could be the finishing touch on a championship-caliber club, the magnet that lures other free agents to an up-and-coming team, or the superstar that relieves pressure on young players in a rebuilding organization. The marketing potential at an iconic venue like Wrigley Field would be enormous.

However, some owners and executives will simply insist that the timing is not right, or claim that an extreme length of a long-term contract almost never makes sense. It could be a risk-averse philosophy, a payroll tied to future commitments, or a fear that cable TV money will disappear.

Despite their strong interest in Soto at the 2022 trade deadline, the Cardinals are going through a transition period that will take them out of the running for nearly every marquee free agent this winter. It will be interesting to see if the Orioles act differently now that private equity billionaire David Rubenstein has full control of the club and if a mystery team emerges.

“Just a hunch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit got involved,” one NL executive said. “They should build on their 2024 year and already have some very good pitches.”

Level 5: Doesn't happen

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The Rays are taking an unconventional, open-minded approach — they pursued Freddie Freeman before he left Atlanta for Dodger Stadium — but there's no realistic scenario involving Soto's market crater and a low-revenue franchise.

(Top photo of Juan Soto at Yankee Stadium: Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)