Kamala Harris camp claims the 2024 election is “razor thin” as the odds favor Donald Trump

All major pre-election forecasts predicted a 50/50 election.

The polls on which these forecasts were based have so far proven largely accurate, although the estimates in all seven swing states appear to have significantly underestimated Trump – albeit within the margin of error.

Jen O'Malley Dillon, Kamala Harris' campaign manager, described the race as “razor-thin” and said, “As we continue to see data trickle in from the Sun Belt states, we knew from the start that our clearest path was to 270.” Votes lie through the Blue Wall” – and advise the Democrats to “get some sleep”.

Nevertheless, Trump has secured a commanding lead in the New York Times election forecast, as his probability of victory increases inexorably between 8 and 11 p.m. According to their prognostic “needle,” a 50/50 contest has turned into a race that is now 90/10 in Trump’s favor.

Their forecast now expects Trump to win 299 Electoral College votes, up from 288 previously.

The Times increasingly sees him as aiming to win re-election by prevailing in the so-called “Blue Wall” trio of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – a wall that collapsed for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and was rebuilt by Biden in 2020.

The Times now rates Wisconsin, where two-thirds of the votes have been counted, as a 66/34 race in Trump's favor, while Trump is rated the favorite at 70 percent in Pennsylvania, where nearly 80 percent of votes have been counted. He is also ahead 2 to 1 in Michigan, where only 38 percent were recorded.

Those three races are expected to decide the election, with Trump ahead in Georgia, where more than 95 percent of the vote is cast, and in North Carolina, where the Times is making the case for Trump. There are no votes from Nevada, the seventh swing state.

Nate Cohn, the Times' senior election analyst, previously warned against treating a 75/25 race, as it was then, as a foregone conclusion.

With no path through Georgia and North Carolina, Harris would have to “defeat Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win — a real possibility, but a tall order,” Cohn said at the time, emphasizing that “we have very little data. “These states, and it's going to take a long time for us to do that.”

Cohn emphasized a key point: A model can only be so accurate if it processes so much data, much of which has yet to be counted.

We now have more of this data, and Cohn now estimates that Trump's re-election is likely.

Democrats remain confident they will get enough votes in Pennsylvania to win, but Trump could still overcome the blue wall, win over 300 Electoral College votes and return to the White House.

Nate Silver, the prominent forecaster, had issued an opposite forecast that had Harris as the 53 percent favorite, but he has since stopped updating that forecast after 10 p.m.

Contrary to all expectations, Trump could even win the popular vote. The Times now projects he could win statewide by one point.

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