Kamala Harris, Iowa poll leader: Trump's chances fall, election prediction markets lean heavily towards Harris after poll shows her winning Iowa

As the 2024 election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining ground on former President Donald Trump, especially after a recent poll in Iowa shows her leading the Republican Party nominee. This shift in election prediction markets could have a significant impact on both candidates.

Poll results show Harris leading

A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released Saturday shows Harris leading Trump by three percentage points among likely voters, at 47% to 44% for Trump. This poll was conducted by Ann Selzer, a respected pollster known for her accurate predictions. Nate Silver, a well-known statistician, recognized the importance of the survey and cautioned against underestimating its impact, saying, “It's incredibly brave to release this survey.”

Markets react to election predictions

Following the poll's release, there was a significant shift in betting markets that had previously favored Trump. Kalshi, a prediction market platform, initially gave Trump a 55% chance of winning, but that number dropped to 50% after the Iowa poll. Just a few days earlier, Trump's chances were 64%.

On Polymarket, Trump's chances of winning fell from 63% to 56%, while Harris' chances rose to 44%. PredictIt also began to map a narrow path to a Harris victory, showing growing confidence in her campaign.

The Electoral College chances are declining

Election Betting Odds, which consolidates data from various betting platforms, reported a decline in Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College. They are now at 52%, a drop of 4.4% in just one day. In contrast, Harris' odds rose to 47.5%, up nearly 10 points over the past week.

The shift in these markets coincides with the fallout from Trump's recent rally at Madison Square Garden, which drew criticism from both Democrats and some Republicans for its tone and content. This event may have contributed to a change in mood among voters and bettors.Also read: How will the results of the 2024 US election affect the stock market and the economy?

FAQs:

Why have the prediction markets shifted toward Kamala Harris?
Prediction markets reacted sharply after a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by three points among likely voters.

How significant is the Des Moines Register's Iowa poll?
The Des Moines Register poll is considered very influential due to Ann Selzer's track record of accuracy. Their polls often closely match election results, making this shift in Iowa particularly notable, especially given that Iowa voted for Trump in the last two elections.