Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Which key US states give each candidate the advantage?

Last updated:November 5, 2024, 12:00 IST

As the US presidential race heats up, polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck

With the polls for the US presidential election set to begin in a few hours, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is shaping up to be highly competitive. Polls suggest a near-equivalent outcome in several key states.

The winner of the presidential election will govern a country of more than 330 million people, but in a few states the contest will be decided by a tiny fraction of the population. Citing public opinion polls, US media reports said that only seven of the 50 states were truly competitive this year, while the rest were all clearly Democratic or Republican.

Latest national trends

Key battlegrounds such as Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina will likely determine the outcome as both candidates make their final voter efforts before Election Day. Among those seven battlegrounds, Pennsylvania, the most populous, stands out as the state most likely to determine whether Democrat Harris or Republican Trump becomes the next president.

The tight margins suggest that voter turnout and short-term changes in public sentiment could play a crucial role in deciding the next president. The race is particularly close in the swing states, which are crucial for votes. Polls suggest that states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona are effectively tied.

Several US polls show Harris narrowly ahead of Trump. A HarrisX/Forbes According to a poll, Harris is at 49%, Trump is at 48%, while a PBS News/NPR/Marist According to one survey, it is 51% to 47%. However, other polls, including those from NBC News and Emerson College, show a dead heat at 49%.

Harris' Edge

Iowa: Recent polls suggest Harris has gained ground in Iowa, holding a slight 47% to 44% lead over Trump. This shift is largely due to strong support from female voters.

Michigan: Harris has been actively campaigning here and is focusing on urban areas where her message of unity could resonate well. Their efforts are aimed at consolidating support from diverse communities.

Trump's edge

Georgia and North Carolina: Trump continues to enjoy strong support in these states. His campaign is focused on economic issues such as inflation and government spending that resonate with many voters concerned about rising costs.

Pennsylvania: Both candidates are investing a lot of time in Pennsylvania, but Trump has performed well here in the past. His rallies emphasize economic recovery and border security and appeal to key populations.

Critical US states

Seven states could flip one way or the other on November 5: the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and the Sun Belt quartet of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin served as a “blue wall” for Democratic candidates for a generation.

However, in 2016, Trump narrowly defeated all three, fueling his surprise victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton. Four years later, Joe Biden won the presidency after retaking Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Democrats, while also winning surprise victories in Georgia and Arizona, two states that have historically voted Republican.