Keys to a Week 9 fantasy football win

Best spot of the week: Brian Robinson Jr. vs. NYG

Robinson Jr., who is expected to play with a hamstring injury, has been a great performer for fantasy managers this season. He has scored more than 10 fantasy points in six of seven games this year and has even overcome injuries in several games. He has proven to be someone you can rely on and his role has been great this year. Robinson is averaging over 16 opportunities per game and is in the top 10 in red zone touches this year. The role is strong and so is his efficiency. Robinson currently ranks eighth in EPA among all RBs and continues to break tackles at an above-average rate.

This week, Robinson faces a division rival, the Giants. New York is allowing the most rushing yards per play this season and is coming off a week in which they allowed 131 total yards to Najee Harris. Robinson starts this week with confidence.

Questionable spot of the week: JK Dobbins vs. CLE

Dobbins failed to surpass 60 rushing yards in four of his last five games. Since his first two games of the season, he has struggled to break tackles and create explosive plays. One of those games was against the Panthers, who we now know to be one of the worst run defenses in the league. According to Player Profiler, Dobbins now ranks 52nd in broken tackle rate and just 33rd in yards per touch.

The recent run of poor play could only get worse this week. Dobbins will play on the road against the Browns. Cleveland has the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, according to PFF. It's a tough situation for Dobbins, who looks like a touchdown-or-bust candidate for Week 9.

If you have another option, I would consider starting it.

Pick and Play of the Week: Elijah Moore vs. LAC

All the attention in the Browns WR room is on Cedric Tillman and for good reason. Tillman has 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks without Amari Cooper. The hype is justified, but that hype is causing Elijah Moore's usage in Week 8 to fly under the radar.

In Week 8, Moore posted a 30% target percentage and turned it into a solid day with eight catches for 85 yards. Moore is a talented receiver who has had plenty of success in his career coupled with capable quarterback play. We saw this in Week 8 when Jameis Winston completed 66% of his passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Winston often leaned on Moore in third-down and under-pressure situations. This is a good indicator that Winston trusts Moore. They can pick up Moore this week and play against the Chargers, who allowed 107 yards to Chris Olave last week.

Trending: WR Josh Downs

Downs was the Colts' best receiver this season. He leads the team with a 26% target percentage and has been a top-20 receiver in four of his six starts. Downs is trending up because the Colts decided to use QB Anthony Richardson and start veteran Joe Flacco. This is an immediate improvement to the overall passing attack, as Richardson completed just 50% of his passes and just 25% of his deep attempts, which is the lowest in the league.

In three starts with Joe Flacco, Downs averaged 10 goals per game and had an average fantasy finish of WR13. That means Downs was a borderline fantasy WR1 with Flacco as his QB. Downs faces the Vikings this week, who have struggled on defense in the last two games. Minnesota allowed Jared Goff 280 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7 as he completed 88% of his passes. In Week 8, the Vikings gave up 279 yards and four touchdowns to Matthew Stafford. Start Downs this week with confidence.

Downtrend: WR Zay Flowers

Flowers put in a strong recovery performance. In Week 8, he managed 115 yards on seven receptions. Flowers hit a season-high 36% of goals in that game, and he has now seen a team-high 27% of Ravens goals this season. This is all great news as Flowers continues to break out in year two. But on Tuesday, Flowers' fantasy stock took a serious hit.

The Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson. Johnson is an elite target scorer who knows how to separate and get open. Since entering the NFL, he has posted a 26% target percentage, totaling 697 career targets. According to Statmuse, this is sixth in the NFL since 2019. Johnson will replace Nelson Agholor in the Ravens' offense. Agholor has only met 10% of the team's goals this season. The addition of Johnson will likely lower Flowers' target share, reducing his weekly fantasy value. Despite his strong start to the season, Flowers is trending downward.

Sales high of the week: Tucker Kraft

Kraft has been a pleasant surprise in fantasy football this season. At the start of 2024, he was a relatively unknown player. Kraft had offseason surgery and appeared to be behind TE Luke Musgrave on the depth chart. But from week 1 it was clear that Kraft was it the guy in that TE room when he played 96% of the Packers' snaps. He currently ranks seventh in TE points per game this season, but his production is unsustainable. Kraft has a 20% touchdown rate this season. That means 20% of his receptions were for touchdowns, which is about four times more than the NFL average.

In the last three games, the Packers have had all of their WRs back from injuries and/or suspensions. During that time, Kraft has hit just 11% of the team's targets, which ranks sixth behind RB Josh Jacobs and WR4 Dontayvion Wicks. His role is not good at the moment and is supported by touchdowns. According to Player Profiler, Kraft ranks 20th in TE expected fantasy points based on his usage. That puts him in line with Jonnu Smith and Tyler Conklin this season. Now is the time to sell high. Try trading him for someone like TJ Hockenson or Bucky Irving if you can.

Buy low of the week: Mike Evans

It's the perfect time to shop Mike Evans on the cheap. There has been a lot of talk this past week about which Bucs receiver would replace Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 8. But unfortunately the answer was neither. Rookie Jalen McMillan led receivers with seven targets but managed just 35 scoreless yards. The Bucs relied on TE Cade Otton and their RBs instead of the backup WRs in the passing game. There's a good chance this will continue over the next few weeks.

Evans is a great buy at the moment as he recovers from a hamstring injury. He was a top-10 receiver in three of his five games played this season. Evans has earned a solid 23% target share in these five games completed and upon his return he will no longer have to compete with Chris Godwin for goals. But there's more good news, as Evans has a great fantasy playoff schedule. He will face the Cowboys and Panthers; Both teams rank in the top five in yards per pass allowed this season, according to NFL Pro. Trade someone like JK Dobbins or Darnell Mooney for Evans if you can.

Must-see of the week: Chase Brown

Brown has seen an uptick in the Bengals' offense over the last month. In his last three games, he leads the Bengals backfield with 56% snap percentage and has earned 60% of rush attempts, according to Fantasy Life. In Week 8, Brown completed a season-high 67% of the team's carries, converting that into a 14-touch game for 34 yards and a touchdown. Brown has now scored more than 10 points in four of his last five games, finishing in the top 20 three times during that span, and now Zack Moss is out with a neck injury.

This week, Brown finds himself in a great spot. He is the home favorite against the Raiders with a seven-point lead. This is a good position for Brown to get plenty of touches in the second half. According to PFF, Las Vegas ranks last in tackling this season. That makes them a great match for any running back, but it's even better for Brown because he's breaking tackles at a top-10 rate this season. Make sure Brown is in your lineup this week and consider trading him if he isn't already on your roster.