Last push before Election Day ‣ Texas AFT

As we enter the final hours of early voting in Texas, more than 7.5 million voters have already cast their ballots, marking another historic election cycle in the Lone Star State. While this represents an impressive turnout by Texas standards, with about 40% of registered voters making their voices heard, turnout is slightly below the record pace set in 2020. In 2020, 9.7 million Texans voted early, with 11.3 million ultimately voted for a turnout of 67%.

This election comes amid significant growth in the Texas electorate. The state reached a remarkable milestone of 18.6 million registered voters and added 1.7 million new voters since 2020. This increase in registration reflects both Texas' population growth and increased political engagement, although the state still faces significant challenges in voter turnout and voter access.

While early voting patterns show stronger Republican turnout compared to 2020, experts caution against reading too much into these numbers. Direct comparisons are not reliable due to the unique circumstances of this election, as pandemic concerns and then-President Donald Trump's criticism of early voting significantly influenced voting behavior.

According to a Ryan Data & Research analysis of the first nine days of early voting, 33% of early voters have a history of voting in Republican primaries, while 22% have participated in Democratic primaries. Another third only voted in general elections and 10% are first-time voters. However, research shows that voting behavior can change dramatically in the final days of early voting, with younger voters typically casting their ballots closer to Election Day. This could be particularly significant considering that voters under 30 currently account for just 11% of early voter turnout, while voters over 50 account for more than 60% of votes cast.

What does the electoral landscape look like? Recent UT Tyler polls show a tight race statewide, with Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 51% to 46% and incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz holding a slim 47% to 45% lead over his challenger, Rep. Colin Allred. has. Trump won Texas 52% to 46.5% in 2020 and 52% to 43% in 2016.

The stakes for public education in this election cannot be overstated, as the results of several closely contested House races in Texas have a particularly profound impact on the future. Republican candidates in these races significantly outperformed their Democratic opponents in the final weeks of the election, raising over $11 million compared to $3.5 million for Democrats, much of it from dark money groups lobbying for the Use taxpayer-funded vouchers for private schools.

This funding gap is particularly troubling given recent disputes in the Texas Legislature. Last year's regular session and subsequent special sessions saw relentless attacks on preschool education, including multiple attempts to expose a voucher scam that would drain resources from public education. At stake are not just vouchers, but also public education funding, teacher salaries and benefits, academic freedom, and classroom censorship.

In higher education, right-wing politicians have vowed to step up their attacks on academic freedom, tenure and shared governance. The next legislative session could see even more aggressive attempts to dismantle public education if pro-public education candidates fail to win in competitive districts.

These state-level threats are amplified by national initiatives like Project 2025, a 992-page plan developed by the Heritage Foundation and ideologues with close ties to Trump's inner circle. This radical agenda would completely dismantle the Department of Education, convert critical Title I funds into non-binding block grants, and eliminate critical federal oversight of educational equity. The plan calls for a massive expansion of private school vouchers and “education savings accounts” that would drain resources from public schools while attacking school lunch programs that serve millions of Texas students. In higher education, it would end student loan forgiveness and restrict academic freedom on campus. These changes would be particularly harmful to first-generation college students and historically underserved communities. Beyond education, Project 2025 specifically targets educators' unions, threatening to repeal the National Education Association's congressional charter and weaken educators' collective bargaining power and their ability to advocate for their students.

These political battles come amid ongoing voter access challenges in Texas. The state remains one of only eight states that does not have universal online voter registration, and recent investigations have uncovered cases in which eligible voters were incorrectly removed from voter rolls. In particular, problems persist with registrations initiated through the Department of Public Security, highlighting the need to modernize the state's election infrastructure. In some cases, eligible voters were forced to cast provisional ballots or were incorrectly removed from voter rolls. This underscores the importance of checking registration status before voting.

These political battles come against a backdrop of systematic voter suppression in Texas, where Attorney General Ken Paxton has spent years waging a campaign against voters in large counties and racial and ethnic minorities. The state remains one of only eight states that does not have universal online voter registration, and recent investigations have uncovered cases in which eligible voters were incorrectly removed from voter rolls. In particular, problems persist with registrations initiated through the Department of Public Security, highlighting the need to modernize the state's election infrastructure. In some cases, eligible voters were forced to cast provisional ballots or were incorrectly removed from voter rolls. This underscores the importance of checking registration status before voting.

Time is running out, but there is still a chance to take part in early voting, which runs until Friday, November 1st at 7 p.m. Anyone who waits in line until the end can vote. After that, voters will have to wait until Election Day, Tuesday, November 5, to cast their ballot. Early voting sites often have shorter wait times than polling places on Election Day. Voters are therefore encouraged to cast their votes before the deadline on Friday if possible.

Whether you plan to vote during these final days of early voting or on Election Day, preparation is critical. Before you vote:

Remember: your vote counts. For educators, school staff and the communities we serve, this election will shape the future of public education in Texas for years to come. Each vote carries significant weight in determining whether our public schools will be strengthened or weakened by upcoming policies.

Let us vote together for public education and pedagogy candidates who will work with us to ensure our public schools receive the resources and support necessary for students, educators and school staff to succeed.