'Life-threatening' warning issued for Florida as spaghetti model reveals Storm Rafael could hit US

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Florida Keys.

People living in the southwest of the Sunshine State could see heavy rain and flooding through Wednesday as Tropical Storm Rafael gains strength in the Atlantic.

Meteorologists confirmed that Rafael will become a Category 2 hurricane when it reaches Cuba on Wednesday, but will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves toward the United States at the end of the week.

And now a spaghetti model – so called because the lines resemble strands of pasta – shows the trajectory the storm will take over the next few days.

Rafael will also reach Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana by Saturday, bringing winds of 40 mph, with the storm possibly reaching as far away as Tennessee.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that water levels in the Keys could rise one to two feet, resulting in “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

These conditions will last about six to seven hours and will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain with wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson told DailyMail.com that “stormy conditions” are expected over the Florida Keys.

He added that a tornado could form in the region along parts of Florida's west coast, but clarified that it would not be like previous hurricanes that have recently made landfall.

A spaghetti model has revealed the likely path of Tropical Storm Rafael. The storm's impact is likely to extend over 105 miles from its center, hitting the Florida Keys on Wednesday

At 7 a.m. ET, Rafael was 80 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, moving northwest at 13 mph, with winds reaching 60 mph

At 7 a.m. ET, Rafael was 80 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, moving northwest at 13 mph, with winds reaching 60 mph.

The spaghetti model shows that Rafael will cross the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Jamaica before heading to Florida.

The NHC issued a public warning Tuesday indicating that Tropical Storm Rafael will steadily strengthen, with wind speeds reaching 105 miles from the storm's center.

Once wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour, Rafael becomes a hurricane.

“The combination of storm surge and high tide is causing normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising water flowing inland from the coast,” the NHC said.

Anderson said they expect the storm to weaken from a hurricane to a tropical storm as it reaches the southeastern Louisiana coast, adding: “We don't really expect any major impacts to the United States.”

Residents in the Keys and Marathon will be hit hardest by a one- to three-foot “storm surge over Key West,” Anderson said, adding, “So there will be some street flooding for sure.”

Rafael is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane when it reaches Cuba on Wednesday, bringing up to 10 inches of rain in some areas

The spaghetti model created by Tropical Tidbits showed the storm is likely to move northwest from its current location in the tropical Atlantic.

The computer model was created by combining multiple forecast tracks from different weather models onto a single map.

And each line that resembles a strand of spaghetti represents a forecast from a different weather mode that NHC uses.

The storm will reach the southernmost tip of Florida late Wednesday evening and will still be a Category 2 hurricane when it passes west of the state at 7 a.m. ET Thursday, according to AccuWeather.

It will move through the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday and is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by 7 a.m. ET Saturday as it approaches Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

The storm will continue to move toward Tennessee over the weekend and dissipate early Monday morning.

States like Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are likely to be hit by the storm

Rainfall of up to three inches and flooding of one to two feet are expected in the southernmost states

Meteorologist Nicolette Nolan told CBS: “The Gulf Coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida need to watch for impacts at the end of the week.”

Meteorologists remain unsure whether the storm's intensity will remain the same when it reaches Florida later this week, but said it could cause localized wind damage and flash flooding in some areas.

“The system is expected to move into the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given the significant uncertainties surrounding long-term forecast direction and intensity, it is still too early to determine what, if any, impacts may occur.” , the NHC said Monday.

However, the agency reported that Cuba and the Cayman Islands will be hardest hit, with rainfall expected to reach up to 10 inches in some areas, leading to flash floods and mudslides.

This is the 18th storm to form in the Atlantic this year, reflecting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast that 2024 would be an above-average hurricane season.

November marks the final month of hurricane season, but up to three more named storms could form before the end.