Matchday preview and result prediction

ORLANDO, Fla. – BYU vs. UCF is on the field for the fourth meeting ever.

It will be the first meeting between the two programs as Big 12 Conference opponents. They last met at the Boca Raton Bowl in 2020. BYU won that game 49-23.

The last time BYU traveled to Orlando to face the Knights was in 2014, when BYU was an independent program. This was the only time UCF defeated BYU. The Knights won 31-24 in overtime.

BYU enters this matchup with a perfect 7-0 record and is 4-0 in the Big 12.

UCF is on a four-game losing streak, 3-4 overall, and is 1-3 in Big 12 play.

No. 11 BYU vs. UCF

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium

Kick-off: 1:30 p.m. (MT)

TV: ESPN

Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM) – Extended preview begins at 9 p.m

Three thoughts on match day



1. Set the tone early

In last week's game against Oklahoma State, BYU allowed the Pokes to gain early confidence as underdogs. For a UCF team that has lost its last four games, the best recipe for success is to knock them down early in the game.

Despite last week's loss at Iowa State, UCF was able to pull off a moral victory that proves they can compete with Jacurri Brown as their starting quarterback.

Aside from the win at Baylor, BYU has allowed Big 12 opponents in recent games to get off to strong starts early in games.

2. Win the revenue battle

BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick was upfront about where he would like to see improvement this week. It's about taking care of football. Roderick always wants BYU to be successful in this area, but last week BYU took a step back and gave the ball to the Pokes three times.

QB Jake Retzlaff is an aggressive signal caller. Last week he tried to thread one of his throws, which resulted in an interception.

UCF had two interceptions last week against Iowa State that resulted in short fields or scores – forcing UCF to sustain long drives by avoiding turnovers.

3. We expect a large gathering of BYU fans

UCF fans have been selling their tickets on the secondary market at prices under $30 per ticket. This is music to the ears of BYU fans.

BYU already has a strong fan contingent in the Southeast. Then add in the fans who want to travel from Utah to visit Disney World; I expect a strong performance from BYU fans at the Bounce House.

Two BYU vs. UCF questions

1. Will BYU stop UCF's ground attack?

UCF is averaging 280.3 yards per game on the ground this season. That's good for third nationally in rushing offense.

Former Virginia QB RJ Harvey, a product of his hometown of Orlando, leads the Knights. If he can rush for more than 150 yards, UCF will be tough to beat. The Knights are 3-1 this season in games in which Harvey rushes for more than 150 yards.

UCF's only loss came last week against Iowa State.

Miami transfer QB Jacurri Brown will partner with Harvey in the backfield. Head coach Gus Malzahn has praised Brown's arm talent. However, in last week's game against the Cyclones, that didn't seem to be present. Brown made his impact on the ground felt, rushing for 155 yards.

BYU ranks 64th nationally in rush defense, allowing 141.6 yards per game.

If BYU maintains this average against a one-dimensional Knights team, it should result in a big win. But that's easier said than done.

Aside from the Baylor game, every Big 12 opponent has had periods of success on the ground against BYU's defense.

BYU will need strong performances from its front seven. Players like Jack Kelly, Isaiah Glasker and Tyler Batty will need to set the tone for the defense.

2. Will BYU prove prognosticators wrong again?

It was an unusual week full of forecasts. BYU opened the week as a favorite against UCF. Then the line quickly became a UCF favorite.

As we've seen in other leagues like the Big Ten and ACC, traveling across multiple time zones for conference games is difficult. Big 12 teams also had problems. For example, last week Arizona State lost to Cincinnati.

BYU has done well as an underdog this season. Let's see if they can show some underdog spirit this week despite being the undefeated team and having No. 11 next to their name on the rankings.

One-score prediction for BYU vs. UCF

I expect both teams to have some explosive offensive plays and that this game will last until the end.

BYU showed some magic last week in a win over Oklahoma State. They feel like a team that finds a way to win games no matter the circumstances.

I'm making a case for BYU running back LJ Martin to have a big game and the Cougars let Orlando escape with their eighth straight win of the season.

Score Prediction: BYU 33, UCF 27

Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for KSLsports.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12-3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch's coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.

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