Must-win Pennsylvania is still stunningly close as Harris and Trump fight for the edge | US elections 2024

KAmala Harris stood before a cheering crowd of hundreds of her supporters in Philadelphia and vowed that she would deliver in Pennsylvania, a battleground state that was considered a must-win in the Electoral College.

“Nine days left in one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime, and we know it will be a close race until the end,” the vice president told his supporters in Philadelphia last weekend. “And make no mistake: we will win.”

And yet, just a day earlier, at a rally in State College, Donald Trump declared, “We will do this.” It will be the greatest victory in the history of our country for all of us — not for me, for all of us.”

The conflicting comments reflect a neck-and-neck race in Pennsylvania that is heading toward the finish line with no clear front-runner. The winner of Pennsylvania and his 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground state, will likely win the Electoral College and determine the direction of the country for the next four years.

Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by just 1.2 points in 2020, four years after Trump won the state by 0.7 points. According to the Guardian's poll tracker, Trump currently has a lead of less than one point over Harris in the state.

Conversations with voters in Pennsylvania highlight how close the elections are, often confusing both Democrats and Republicans. And the outcome could potentially change with an unexpected turn of events, such as Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden in New York last weekend. There, a comedian took the stage in front of Trump and called Puerto Rico a “garbage island.” As experts quickly discovered, there are more than 470,000 Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania.

For Democrats, the focus is on galvanizing voters in Pennsylvania cities like Philadelphia and Scranton and their immediate suburbs, which are home to large numbers of women and college-educated voters who they believe are receptive to their message of protecting democracy and abortion. Republicans are more focused on winning over white, working-class voters and a growing number of young men of color by attacking Harris over the president's immigration policies and the high inflation of his early presidency.

An example of this dynamic is Lackawanna County, which includes Scranton. Hillary Clinton won it by 3.4 points in 2016, but lost most neighboring districts significantly as white working-class voters flocked to Trump.

Four years later, Biden won Lackawanna County by 8.4 points, although Trump's continued strength with working-class voters in neighboring counties helped him keep the race close in Pennsylvania.

The outcome here, as always, will depend on voter turnout, and Democrats are counting on a strong ground game to help them clinch a victory. The culinary union Unite Here, for example, endorsed Harris in August and has knocked on more than a million doors in Pennsylvania this election cycle, aiming to surpass 1.25 million by November 5.

Jaime Hunt, a 22-year-old organizer with Unite Here, walked through South Philadelphia on a recent sunny Saturday, asking voters if they planned to vote by mail and urging them to fill out their ballots immediately if they already received them would have them.

The advertising efforts of Unite Here and other pro-Harris groups could make a crucial difference in Pennsylvania. In 2020, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the state by about 80,000 votes, in part by maximizing his advantage in Philadelphia and surrounding suburbs. Based on her numerous conversations with voters this year, Hunt is confident Harris has a chance.

“There are also many – quite a few – Republicans who vote for her. “A lot of people transfer,” Hunt said. “I think she’ll win.”

Daniel Levin, a regional organizing director for the youth voting group NextGen America, has spent months registering thousands of students on Philadelphia college campuses to vote and is now helping them develop a plan to vote for Harris and other Democrats.

Despite concerns about whether young voters will support Harris, particularly amid widespread outrage over the Biden administration's response to the war in Gaza, Levin predicted high turnout among young people in Philadelphia. On a recent Friday, he convinced a young voter at Temple University to support Harris after explaining how her policies could benefit the city's low-income residents.

“Here we can be optimistic that we will have a large voter turnout,” Levin said. “And I think that’s what we’re going to do this year. I really believe we’re going to do that in Philadelphia, and we have to carry (Pennsylvania).”

In contrast to the broad network of pro-Harris groups working to attract left-leaning voters, the Trump campaign's comparatively sparse ground operation in battleground states like Pennsylvania has raised concerns among his allies. Instead, Trump and the Republican National Committee have focused more attention on combating suspected voter fraud, most recently raising concerns about potentially fraudulent registrations in Lancaster County.

Despite Trump's indifference to his turnout, he has managed to stay competitive in Pennsylvania, and his most ardent supporters appear as motivated as ever to cast their vote for him.

“I've never seen a movement like this in my life,” said John Spatig Jr., 46, who attended a Trump rally in Allentown and lives in Northampton County, one of the state's biggest advancers. He said the most important issue for him was the government's response to the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccination regulations.

“How can the government guarantee me that there will never be a lockdown?” he said.

Marilynn Raymond, 77, a retired accountant from Reading, said at Trump's rally in Allentown on Tuesday that she didn't think the polls suggested a close race.

“Any crowds Trump has caused throughout the election far exceed Kamala,” she said. “I think he’s way ahead.”

As this campaign season nears its end, Pennsylvania voters appear to be approaching Election Day with a mix of fatigue, excitement and fear.

The fatigue was visible as Hunt made her rounds through South Philadelphia, and a resident responded to her knock by shouting through the door, “Nobody's home!”

Both parties have already poured hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of campaign advertising into Pennsylvania and particularly Philadelphia. Philadelphia-based ABC affiliate WPVI had completely sold out of its advertising inventory by Election Day, October 24th.

Alex Pearlman, a comedian from suburban Philadelphia with a large following on TikTok, met with Tim Walz before a rally in Scranton and said he was urging the Democratic vice presidential nominee to keep voters happy until the end.

“Everyone is tired,” Pearlman said. “Everyone was in a pretty good mood the whole time. I think most people were holding their breath just to see who the candidates would be after the primaries. Now that we’re at this point, almost everyone has made their decision.”

This dynamic has forced Harris and Trump to compete for a shrinking number of undecided voters heading into Election Day. According to an Emerson College poll conducted in late October, only 3% of likely voters in Pennsylvania were undecided. And yet that 3% could make all the difference, considering the state's last two presidential elections were decided by about a point.

The narrow margins have caused frustration and confusion among Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania. How, they ask, can the presidential race be so close?

“(Harris) will win, but I don’t believe the polls. I can't believe we're tied 50-50,” said Kathy Andrews, a 64-year-old voter from Philadelphia who attended Harris' rally there. “I give great credit to the American people for ensuring that everyone has a modicum of common sense.”

Morgan Pastner Jaffe, a 32-year-old voter from West Chester, said the possibility of a Trump victory makes her “very afraid of the future – of women, of people of color, of all other religions.”

“She has to win or we're screwed,” Jaffe said at Harris' rally.

With the race still undecided, the Trump campaign has sought to distance itself from the comedian who made the comment about Puerto Rico at Madison Square Garden to avoid angering a critical voting bloc.

Rich Patti, 71, said at Trump's rally in Allentown that he didn't think those comments would hurt Trump's chances with Latino voters.

“They are the backbone of our country and that backbone is hurting right now,” he said. “They work hard, they want the same thing. They want to be able to pay their bills and live well.”

People of Puerto Rican descent in the state have suggested otherwise. “I was absolutely frustrated, I was angry – but I wasn’t surprised,” Philadelphia city council member Quetcy Lozada told the Guardian.

The high stakes of the election are visible across Pennsylvania. Of the many signs adorning lawns and lampposts in Philadelphia, some eschew the traditional “Harris Roll 2024” and instead resort to slogans like: “Defend Choice!” and “Defend Democracy!”

“I don’t think you can walk through the city of Philadelphia and not know how important it is to people,” said Shane Ringressy, NextGen’s organizing director in Pennsylvania. “So I would say that Philadelphia itself, including all the young people in the city, definitely seems ready to fight and do its part.”