NBA Betting: Why now is the time to bet on Anthony Edwards to lead the league with 3s per game

Anthony Edwards has been away from downtown this season and has made more 3-pointers in just over a week than any other player in the league.

Can he keep up this pace and be the league's 3-point king this season?

According to ESPN BET, Edwards has the second-fewest odds of leading the league in 3 points scored per game at +750. He's still a significant underdog to favorite Stephen Curry (-120), but his chances are much slimmer on Friday than they were on Tuesday (+2000). So if you think the Ant-Man can do it, now is the time to jump in.

But can he?

I say yes. Because leading the league in 3-point shooting is largely a volume effort, and no one in the NBA has ever shot more 3-pointers per game than Edwards did this season.

Edwards is making 13.3 3-pointers per game this season, ahead of Jayson Tatum (12.2 3PA), Tyrese Maxey (12.0) and LaMelo Ball (12.0). James Harden holds the NBA record with 13.2 3PA during the 2018-19 season. Harden and Curry have led the 3PA league in scoring every season since the 2012-13 season.

The question is: Will Edwards continue to shoot from 3-point range at such an incredibly high rate? Edwards' career-high was 8.4 3PA in the 2021-22 season, and he set his career-low with just 6.7 3PA last season.

Why Edwards needs more threes in 2024-25

A funny thing happened last season: The Celtics won the NBA championship with a team that led the league in 3-point attempts and had the second-most 3-pointers in NBA history. Edwards' Timberwolves reached the Western Conference finals despite ranking 23rd in 3-point attempts and 17th in 3-point shots, but their lack of volume from distance was cited as one of the reasons cited for their offense not being able to keep up with the elite.

Edwards seems to have taken this lesson to heart. He began to show off his new 3-point shooting prowess in the Olympics, where a full half (25) of Edwards' field goal attempts (50) came from behind the arc. Even though the international 3-point line is nearly two feet shorter than the NBA line, it was still impressive that Edwards killed those looks at a 48 percent clip.

Edwards increased his 3-point pace even further during the NBA preseason, where 37 of his 56 field goal attempts came from behind the arc. He drained 16 three-pointers in a game where he didn't even hit them well, making only three (18.8%) of his attempts while continuing to fire.

Entering the season, the Timberwolves rank seventh in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game and fifth in 3-point shots per game, with the difference from last season being almost entirely due to Edwards' improvement. And Edwards is transforming his looks, shooting arguably the best shot rate of his career at 41.5% from distance.

What to expect from Edwards

While his 3-point percentage could drop a bit over time, perhaps getting back closer to the 36.3% he shot from behind the arc the last two seasons, it also wouldn't be shocking if his shooting was easy this season would be better. Edwards is known for working on his game and making significant improvements in the offseason, and he is still only 23 years old.

And regardless of the percentage, it appears that Edwards' increased number of shots from downtown is likely to continue. The game has changed and this is a copycat league. The Celtics' success, coming soon after the era in which the Warriors used their distance dominance to win four titles, has forced the rest of the league to increasingly shoot from distance. The NBA as a whole is receiving and making more 3-point shots than ever before this season, and it appears that Edwards and the Timberwolves are following that trend.

Edwards currently leads the league with 5.5 3PG. Jordan Poole (5.0 3PG) and Buddy Hield (4.8 3PG) are tied for second and third, but Hield is both averaging unsustainably high rates of 57.1 3P% and 50.0 3P%, respectively to fewer than 10 attempts per game. Curry is dealing with an ankle problem that keeps him off the court, but he has made more than five 3-pointers per game just three times in his career, and hasn't since the 2020-21 season.

So will Edwards lead the league in 3 points scored per game this season? While we won't know that answer until April, the odds of him achieving this are certainly greater than 7-1. That makes his +750 odds on ESPN BET a strong value.