New York will likely determine future control of the House of Representatives

New York will once again play a major role in determining which party controls the House, with seven contests for the U.S. House seat.

Republicans hold a slim 220-212 seat lead in the House, thanks in large part to Democrats losing four congressional seats in New York in 2022.

On Long Island, Democrats want to replace newly minted GOP incumbents Anthony D'Esposito and Nick LaLota.

With former President Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket and helping turn parts of Long Island red, LaLota is positioned to beat Democrat John Avlon in the primary, which covers two-thirds of Suffolk County.

In the race for 4th place in Nassau County, D'Esposito and Democrat Laura Gillen were in a dead heat, according to a recent poll.

However, a Newsday/Siena College poll released a few days earlier showed Gillen with a stunning 12-point lead in the district, which President Biden won handily in 2020.

Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is trying to hold off former Rep. Mike LiPetri and continue to represent District 3, which covers the wealthy north shore of Nassau County and parts of Queens.

In other swing districts, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler are in favor of keeping their Hudson Valley House seats, according to recent polls. Ryan's Republican challenger is Alison Esposito, a retired NYPD deputy inspector, while Lawler is running against former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones.

However, there is a risk that the upstate seats held by Republican Reps. Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams could flip to Democrats without giving Trump a decisive lead on Election Day.

Democrat Josh Riley is trying to oust Molinaro after losing the same race by less than two percentage points two years ago, while Williams is running against state Sen. John Mannion (D-Syracuse).

If Democrats fail to regain control of the House, it would be a “national embarrassment” for Gov. Kathy Hochul, state Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs and House Minority Leader and Brooklyn Rep. Hakeem Jeffries. said longtime Democratic political strategist Hank Sheinkopf.

“New York will be held responsible again for destroying Democrats’ chance to take control of Congress,” he said.

Republicans are gaining traction in the suburbs of the Democratic-majority Empire State, in part because of New York's sanctuary city laws, he added.

“There is a general fear in the suburbs that migrants, New York crime and chaos will come across the Nassau County line, across the Westchester County line and into the Hudson Valley,” he said.