NHC is monitoring three tropical disturbances with potential for development

TAMPA, Fla. – As the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season begins, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas of interest in the tropics that have potential for development in the coming days.

Disturbance in the Caribbean Sea

The NHC gives a wave in the southern Caribbean Sea a 30 percent chance of developing over the next two days, with the chance rising to 60 percent over the next seven days.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several potential systems in the tropics as we enter the final month of hurricane season.

Where might it go if it evolves?

FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg says high pressure will build over the Atlantic Ocean in the coming days, helping to push any potential system northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC gives a wave in the southern Caribbean Sea a 30 percent chance of developing over the next two days, with the chance rising to 60 percent over the next seven days.

How will water temperatures affect development?

The deep, warm waters of the Caribbean Sea will provide the disturbance with plenty of fuel, according to Osterberg, but that would change as it moves into the Gulf – leading to a very different scenario than Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Any potential system that moves into the Gulf of Mexico will face cooler water temperatures and stronger wind shear, forecasters say.

“The heat levels are much lower than they were six to eight weeks ago, so that will make a difference in how this all plays out,” Osterberg said. “Also probably some wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico. So it’s not the same type of setup once you get into November.”

Osterberg says there is still a lot of uncertainty and it could be next week before there are definitive answers.

Elsewhere in the tropics

According to the NHC, there is a 10 percent chance of another disorganized collection of showers and storms developing near Puerto Rico over the next two to seven days.

A third low pressure system is moving across the North Atlantic and moving east, away from the U.S., with a 20 percent chance of developing over the next week.

The next system to be named would be called Patty.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30th.

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