No more surprises in October: Professors predict possible presidential outcomes

While most voters have made up their minds and the possibility of an October surprise is quickly disappearing, Hillsdale College professors said the presidential election is a flop, depending on election integrity and narrow margins in swing states.

“The most likely swing states to go to Trump appear to be, in descending order, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania,” said Joseph Postell, associate professor of politics. “If Trump wins Michigan and Wisconsin, I think he will also win most of the states mentioned above. The campaigns spend a lot of time in Michigan and Pennsylvania, showing how important these states are to the outcome.”

Of the swing states, the electoral lead likely depends on Pennsylvania, Postell said.

“This year all roads seem to be leading to Pennsylvania – it seems like none of the candidates can win without Pennsylvania,” he said. “I could see the results being different in the battleground Rust Belt states, with Michigan and Wisconsin going for Harris and Pennsylvania going for Trump. It seems possible, but less likely, that the same divergence occurs in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.”

Scot Bertram, journalism lecturer and general manager of WRFH Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM, also said he believes the race will be closest in the Rust Belt.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if Michigan and Wisconsin were two of the absolute closest states and maybe they split up,” Bertram said. “You know, one goes one way, the other goes the other. But I don’t think it will be a one-state race this time.”

According to Bertram, among the swing states, Nevada is the least likely for a reversal.

“Nevada is the 'Great White Whale.' It always teases and never delivers,” Bertram said. “There are a lot of different dynamics in Nevada, with population centers and union support, and so I think Nevada will be too far out of reach again for Trump and the Republicans.”

Bertram said he believes the election will be incredibly close.

“I don't think there will be a bang. I don’t think it will be a 300 electoral vote victory,” Bertram said. “But it could be close – 290, 291 are realistic numbers in my opinion.”

According to Mark Kremer, associate professor of politics, the path to victory for Trump is easy.

“As long as the Democrats don’t cheat, I believe Trump will win the election,” Kremer said.

Exercise science lecturer Chris Netley said the energy seemed to be on former President Donald Trump's side, citing the size and enthusiasm of his recent rally in Manhattan.

“There aren't many artists who can sell out Madison Square Garden. And so now it almost feels like it's almost become cool to be conservative, which is weird,” Netley said. “The Democrats used to be the rebel party against the status quo, but now, because the left wants to censor and take away everything, they have almost turned their party on its head.”

Although there is less than a week left until the election, Postell believes the boundaries of the outcome, whatever it may be, are likely set in stone.

“I don't expect any more 'October surprises,' especially any planned ones because so many early votes have already taken place in critical states,” Postell said. “Major upheavals could come too late to change the outcome in nearby states. This is a new feature of the presidential election, so October surprises must now be “early October surprises.”

When discussing the Senate races, Postell said disparate outcomes for political parties based on race are more common than one might think.

“Many voters like Trump individually but do not translate their support for Trump into support for other Republicans. “The same thing happened with Obama – he was very popular individually, but the Democratic Party as a whole suffered heavy losses even while he was in the White House,” Postell said. “This suggests that I have believed for years that our political parties are much weaker than people generally think.”

Postell said he believes Democrats can win the Senate.

“I think the Senate races in Michigan and Pennsylvania are looking very good for Democrats. Ohio looks close, but I would still bet on Sherrod Brown winning this seat,” Postell said. “These results would be revealing: voters are still divided, and Trump’s coattails are rather weak.” In many states, the Democratic Senate candidates are well ahead of Harris – Arizona is particularly revealing.”

Bertram said he believes there could be a split vote in Michigan's Senate race, which he expects former Republican congressman Mike Rogers to lose to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.

“I think Trump will be ahead of Rogers by a point or two, and I think Michigan is a state that probably stays in the presidential race by a narrow margin,” Bertram said. “If that’s the case, I don’t think Rogers will overtake Trump. If Trump doesn’t win Michigan, I don’t think Rogers will win the Senate race.”

Assistant professor of history Miles Smith said he believes Rogers has a fighting chance and he is cautiously optimistic about the Republican Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

“Mike Rogers delivered a stronger than expected performance in the Michigan Senate race. I don’t know if he’s exaggerating that,” Smith said. “If Trump wins Pennsylvania, I expect McCormick to win. It’s likely Moreno will win in Ohio.”

Lab director Doug Dobrozsi refrained from making predictions, citing the instability of our modern political environment.

“No prediction. “This is a stupid game,” Dobrozsi said. “The most reliable statistical forecasting methods failed in 2020. Recent history shows that anything can happen. I expect there will be more surprises.”

He said the results of this election would say a lot about what kind of country we are.

“I’m spending more time thinking about the truth of the saying that we get the leaders we deserve,” Dobrozsi said.