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NOAA's 2024 Winter Forecast is in: Expect La Niña to return

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NOAA's 2024 Winter Forecast is in: Expect La Niña to return

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After the warmest winter since records began last year, the coming winter could be mild again for large parts of the country, federal meteorologists announced on Thursday.

Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that most of the southern U.S. coast and the East Coast are expected to experience above-average temperatures this winter. Additionally, most of the southern half of the U.S. – from Southern California to the Carolinas – is expected to see less rain and snow than usual, potentially raising concerns about drought conditions.

“This winter, an emerging La Niña is expected to impact upcoming winter patterns, particularly our precipitation forecasts,” Jon Gottschalck, head of the Climate Prediction Center’s Operational Prediction Branch, said in a statement.

The center's forecast covers the months of December, January and February, known as meteorological winter.

Mild winter likely in the south and east

Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected from the southern part of the U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, the East Coast, New England and northern Alaska, according to the forecast released Thursday. According to NOAA, these probabilities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas.

Gottschalck said at a news conference Thursday that invasions of the dreaded polar vortex were less likely than usual this winter.

Overall, below average temperatures are forecast this winter across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Plains and throughout southern Alaska.

Where is a wet winter most likely?

Above-average weather conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, and above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and throughout the northern part of the U.S., NOAA said. These probabilities are strongest in parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

Conversely, the greatest chance of drier than average conditions is in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Texas and southern New Mexico.

Weak La Niña expected

The long-promised La Niña climate pattern has not yet formed, but is expected to emerge within the next month or so.

Specifically, the Climate Prediction Center said last week that there is a 60% chance of La Niña conditions occurring by the end of November. And once it forms, it is expected to last from January to March 2025.

Drought is a real problem

Drought is expected to develop or worsen in parts of the Southwest and Gulf Coast, according to the forecast.

“Unfortunately, after a brief period in spring 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the landmass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least moderate drought,” Brad Pugh, operational drought lead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement. “And the outlook for winter precipitation does not bode well for widespread relief.”

What about blizzards and blizzards?

The forecast released Thursday only predicts where above or below average temperatures and above or below average precipitation are most likely.

This winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall in the form of rain, snow or ice, only that overall it is more or less likely. Snow forecasts depend on the strength and direction of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, the center said.

However, Gottschalck said the storm track for northeasterly winds along the East Coast could favor milder air for major cities in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which could mean more rain than snow there. However, he warned that blizzards could still occur depending on prevailing weather conditions.

Other patterns are not taken into account

Climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation — which can trigger extremely cold temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. — are currently not included in this official forecast because they cannot be predicted more than a week or two in advance.

Other large-scale climate patterns in the atmosphere that can influence winter weather include the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rainfall events along the West Coast. It may also contribute to other extreme events in the U.S., including arctic air outbreaks during the winter months in the central and eastern parts of the country, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

The forecast also does not take into account the Siberian snowpack, which other meteorologists use as the basis for their winter weather forecasts.

El Niño dominated last winter

A strong El Niño dominated the winter of 2023/24. Due to El Niño, the 2023–24 winter season was the warmest on record for the contiguous United States. Eight states in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast each experienced their warmest winter on record, NOAA said.

This story has been updated to add video.

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