North Korean troops heading to Russia: What that could mean for the Ukraine war

• According to South Korea, 1,500 North Korean soldiers have been sent to support Russia in the war in Ukraine.
• Sending its troops to Russia would mark a major shift in North Korea's foreign relations.
• And the growing partnership poses a significant global risk, according to North Korean experts.

South Korea's claims that North Korea is preparing troops to fight in Ukraine have put the world on high alert for a major escalation.

Experts on North Korea say the move would mark a worrying improvement in its relations with Russia. They also said North Korean troops could find little more than cannon fodder.

On Friday, South Korea's national intelligence agency said that Russian ships had transported about 1,500 soldiers from North Korea and that they were expected to be deployed to the front lines in Ukraine after training.

A second transport will be planned soon, it was said.

South Korean media has since done so reported that Pyongyang is providing up to 12,000 troops.

The intelligence agency said its findings confirmed media reports in recent weeks that suggested the secretive state was ready to send troops to war.

To support its claims, South Korean intelligence released satellite images purporting to show one of the transport ships carrying troops, as well as other images of what were believed to be hundreds of North Korean troops at Russian military training areas.

The Associated Press reported that South Korea called for the withdrawal of troops during a meeting with the Russian ambassador in Seoul on Monday.

Footage shared with CNN by the Ukrainian government also appears to show North Korean troops being provided with uniforms and equipment in Russia's far east.

According to the NIS, the troops were even given Russian uniforms and fake ID cards.

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Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also said North Korea was preparing to join the fight.

North Korea has denied the reports.

A “dramatic” step

If true, the troop movement “represents a dramatic step in North Korea's foreign relations,” said Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a North Korean defense expert at the Center for International and Strategic Studies.

There have been numerous reports of North Koreans supporting Russia, but only in limited numbers largely in a technical capacity – advisors, engineers and munitions experts tasked with monitoring the development of North Korean munitions. Only a few of them are believed to have entered Ukrainian territory.

The ability to train and potentially deploy North Korean ground troops in large numbers would be a major step.

The use of North Korean troops in combat could well be a signal that “Russia's recruiting and training system is under enormous stress,” Bermudez told Business Insider.

'Cannon Fodder'

North Korea experts told BI that deploying ground troops poses a logistical and cross-cultural challenge in how they operate.

“It is quite surprising that Russia would want such troops in combat, given the likely logistical and other challenges that integrating such troops into Russian combat operations will likely pose,” Bermudez said.

He said the two countries have some historical ties, but most North Koreans do not speak Russian and vice versa.

“Conducting combat operations with an allied force that does not speak your language presents real problems,” he said.

Bermudez also said there was “a significant level of racism” within the Russian military despite the country's wide ethnic diversity – and said North Korean troops could start at the bottom of the pecking order.

Other experts said North Korean troops would face the worst end of Russia's notoriously brutal military hierarchy, which some view as expendable.

“The grim reality is that North Korean troops will probably just be cannon fodder for Russia,” said Edward Howell, a North Korea expert at Oxford University.

Jim Hoare, a former U.K. diplomat in North Korea, agreed. “Actually, I think it’s going to be a nightmare,” he said.

Hoare also pointed out the danger of North Korean troops defecting that loomed with any deployment.

In a report this month that BI could not verify, Ukrainian state broadcaster Suspilne quoted an anonymous intelligence official as saying that 18 North Korean soldiers had deserted so far.

A dangerous partnership

Troop deployments to Ukraine would be a sign that relations between Russia and North Korea are “much closer and more dangerous than we want,” Bermudez said.

Western officials generally have The growing partnership between the countries has been dismissed as a desperate arrangement between rogue states, each with nowhere else to go.

But at least in the short term, the partnership worked for both sides.

Pyongyang gains a lifeline for trade and important military intelligence. According to The Times of London, North Korean weapons were an important aid to Russia's advance in Ukraine last year.

Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, apparently upped the ante this summer, signing a “mutual assistance agreement” that “provides the full support and solidarity of the government and people of the DPRK to the government and people of Russia with regard to the military “Special operations in Korea” confirmed by Ukraine,” according to North Korean state media.

According to Howell, the agreement stated that each country would provide mutual aid to the other in the event of an external attack, but it was left “intentionally vague.”

In Howell's view, what was originally a purely “transactional” relationship with little ideological affinity has “escalated to new heights.”

Russia and North Korea don't care about being seen as criminal actors defying sanctions, Howell said.

“They don’t care that their international status is being downgraded,” he added. “And I think that’s what makes this particularly concerning.”