November 2024 Ohio poll: Trump 54%, Harris 42%

Moreno (R) 48%, Brown (D) 45%

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of Ohio voters finds that 54% of voters support Donald Trump for president, while 42% support Vice President Kamala Harris. Two percent plan to vote for a third party and two percent are undecided.

The latest Emerson College Ohio poll in early September showed Trump leading Harris by 10 points, 53% to 43%. Since September, Harris' support has declined by one point and Trump's support has increased by one point.

In the US Senate election, 48% support Republican Bernie Moreno and 45% support Democrat Sherrod Brown, while 6% are undecided. Taking support from undecided voters into account, 52% support Moreno and 48% support Brown.

When it comes to early voting, Brown leads 52% to 48%, but among those planning to vote in person, Moreno leads 48% to 43%.

Since the last Ohio poll in September, Brown's support has fallen two percentage points and Moreno's support has risen four points, while the share of undecided voters has fallen from 10% to 6%.

“Eight percent of voters split their votes – 2% of Harris voters, while 6% of Trump voters supported Brown. Meanwhile, independents for Moreno are 47% to 42%, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

54 percent of Ohio voters have a positive opinion of former President Trump, while 46 percent have a negative opinion of him. 44 percent have a positive opinion of Harris, while 56 percent have a negative opinion of the vice president.

A majority (58%) of Ohio voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 33% approve. 38 percent approve of Mike DeWine's job as governor, while 34 percent disapprove.

The economy is the most important issue among Ohio voters at 44%, followed by threats to democracy (13%), immigration (11%), abortion access (7%), housing affordability (7%) and health care (6%). .

methodology

The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted October 30 through November 2, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=900, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region based on modeling of likely voters in 2024. Voter turnout modeling is based on voter registration and election data.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity result in higher credibility intervals when the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey's rating range, and at a 95% confidence interval, 1 in 20 times a survey will fall outside the rating range.

Data were collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-Web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.

For all questions asked in this survey, including the exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs, see Full Results. This survey was sponsored by Nextstar Media.

FULL RESULTS