Patriots-Texans preview, prediction and players to watch

Patriots

The Texans are fresh off a 23-20 win over the Bills in which they sacked Josh Allen just once but scored on him nine times and held him to just nine completions in 30 attempts.

Welcome to Season 13, Episode 6 of Unconventional Preview, a serious yet light-hearted, nostalgic look at the Patriots' weekly matchup…

Well, they will be more interesting. At least we will have that.

The quarterback switch from veteran Jacoby Brissett to rookie Drake Maye after five games and four losses in this dull Patriots season should bring some excitement to an offense that ranks 32nd (or last) in passing yards per game (119th). .4) and in 31st place is total offense (250.8) and points per game (12.4).

The games are worth anticipating now that the 22-year-old Maye has stepped in for Brissett, the ultimate placeholder quarterback who was under constant siege with a toughness reminiscent of Steve Grogan but only two touchdown passes managed.

Both are objectively true: Brissett was ailing. And he was bad.

In recent weeks, it became inevitable that Maye, the No. 3 overall pick in the last draft, would take over at some point this season.

I've already strung together a lot of words about why I don't think this is right for the bigger picture only Image that should be important this season. But that quickly became a minority opinion, especially after Brissett's inability to throw the ball down the field with any accuracy became more apparent.

I suspect that Brissett's progressive change of a throw after a touchdown that should have been won by Ja'Lynn Polk in the final minutes against the Dolphins last Sunday was the turning point for many – perhaps even the Patriots coaching staff.

But even those who insist that Maye has been playing since he hit Javon Baker on that great (albeit incomplete) throw from distance against the Eagles in the preseason have to admit that the timing is strange.

The Texans are on your short list of teams wouldn't want your talented but raw rookie quarterback to make his first career start against him, at least if you're at all concerned about his immediate and long-term well-being.

The Texans are fresh off a 23-20 win over the Bills in which they sacked superstar quarterback Josh Allen just once, but hit him nine times and held him to just nine completions in 30 attempts. A QB's 1-to-1 hits-to-completions ratio isn't something you see too often, especially against a quarterback of Allen's size.

The Patriots allowed their quarterbacks (Brissett and Maye in a brief relief stint against the Jets) to be pressured on 48.2 percent of their dropbacks. The Texans lead the NFL with a pressure rate of 42 percent. Ten Texans players have at least one sack and they have recorded 31 quarterback hits in five games.

Even if you believe the Patriots have some continuity on their largely abysmal offensive line after Vederian Lowe became the first Patriot to start a second game at left tackle, having Maye against coach DeMeco Ryans' aggressive defense feels desperate to debut.

The Jaguars, who are mediocre at best, are in London next week. Maye's first start couldn't wait until then? It's a cynical way of thinking, but it almost feels like a desperate form of appeasement – perhaps to the owners, but also to fans who are bored with what a lousy team looks like.

Also, as Devin McCourty noted on Twitterwhy announce that Maye is the starter? To give the Texans' defense – fourth overall (274.2 yards per game) and third (154) against the pass – a run for their money? A bit of guesswork until game day would have been beneficial. And these patriots need every advantage they can get.

It's easy to wish great things from Maye now, but it's not particularly sensible. He was sacked twice in 12 dropbacks during his cameo against the Jets. His first pass hit a defender in the upper body. He will be successful on more big plays than Brissett because he has a gifted arm and because Brissett hasn't hit many, if any.

But he will make mistakes, big mistakes, rookie mistakes, probably ones that cost the Patriots points. Despite all of Brissett's limitations, he only turned the ball over twice, both on the same play.

In some ways, it's fitting that Maye debuts against the Texans, because they are the model for what the Patriots' rebuild should look like if all goes well.

They hit the jackpot by drafting quarterback CJ Stroud (third in the NFL with 1,385 passing yards, tied for 10th with seven touchdown passes) at No. 2 overall last year. Ryans, a former star linebacker like Patriots rookie coach Jerod Mayo, has changed the culture of the franchise. And former Patriots general manager Nick Caserio has stocked the roster with a series of successful drafts.

Yes, the Patriots will be more interesting with Maye at the helm. And the Texans are by no means invincible – they've actually allowed more points (114) than they've scored (102), largely due to a 27-point loss to the Vikings in Week 3.

But in a way we have already seen how this will probably turn out. In Week 2, Stroud was seen giving Bears' rookie quarterback (and No. 1 overall pick) Caleb Williams words of encouragement after the Texans' 19-13 win. Williams, who is more polished than Maye and has been playing very well of late, was disheartened after being sacked seven times and throwing two interceptions.

If Maye experiences a similar day, don't say we didn't warn you. But hey, at least he gets to make his debut in these cool Pat Patriot jerseys. We hope it isn't in ruins at the end of the game.

Get started, Slye, and let's get things started. . .

Three players other than quarterbacks worth watching

Ja'Lynn Polk: The rookie receiver's stats against the Dolphins (one catch on six targets for 13 yards) were unspectacular and largely consistent with his performance this season.

He has nine catches on 19 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown in five games. His season (or career) high is three catches for 30 yards in Week 4 against the 49ers.

But everything is on the upswing. Polk's separation numbers have been up and down, but he has shown a knack for catching contested balls — and he would have been the savior of last Sunday's game had Brissett made a better throw beforehand, which for a moment looked like a go-ahead one An obscure but correctly interpreted rule dictated that Polk didn't get all inbounds with his second foot.

Polk played every offensive snap against the Dolphins, and he may benefit more than anyone from Maye filling in for Brissett. These are the beginnings of what should have been a long-standing quarterback/receiver partnership. Well, if only Polk can maintain his focus a little more when things aren't going his way.

Stefan Diggs: Speaking of receivers who don't hide their frustrations, the experienced Diggs is a good fit for the Texans after arriving in April in a trade with the Bills, who seemed tired of his insistence on being the No. 1 option.

Diggs has been productive as the de facto No. 2 receiver behind Nico Collins — he has 31 catches for 315 yards and two touchdowns. Don't tell him, as he seems quite happy in Houston, but that's actually well below his pace in five games with the Bills last year (he had 39 catches for 520 yards and five touchdowns to that point, but not 100). -yard game after Week 6).

With the sensational Collins now on injured reserve after a hamstring injury, the Cooks are expected to be Stroud's top target on Sunday in the league's top-ranked passing attack (272.4 yards per game). Diggs has typically performed well against the Patriots, with 55 catches for 702 yards and seven touchdowns in nine regular-season games.

Will Anderson: The 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year hasn't amassed any tackles this season – he has 11 in five games. But don't mistake this relatively low total for a lack of impact. Anderson leads the Texans' versatile pass rush – which includes veteran Danielle Hunter – with 2½ sacks, while also racking up five tackles for loss and five quarterback hits. There's an excellent chance Anderson, the No. 3 pick in the '23 draft, gets to know Maye, the No. 3 pick in the '24 draft, early and often.

The review

On December 17, 2006, the Patriots beat the Texans 40-7 in the teams' second meeting ever. In the second-to-last game he would ever play for the Texans, former No. 1 overall pick David Carr threw four interceptions, was sacked four times and was hit four more times. There's an extremely obvious cautionary tale somewhere that I hope we don't need to revisit here.

Complaint of the week

Of course, what Jabrill Peppers allegedly did goes far beyond the scope of a complaint. So let's stick with football and this recurring complaint: Can we please get through a weekend without wondering if Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt understand how a game clock works?

Prediction or do you think JJ Watt still has his letterman jacket? …

Fun fact: The Patriots are 7-0 at home against the Texans, including playoff wins in the 2012 and 2016 seasons.

Not-so-fun fact: This undefeated streak likely ends on Sunday.

Theoretically the Patriots could Cause problems for the Texans with a ball control offense. Houston allowed 120.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 17th in the league, while New England – which gained 151 yards on 19 carries against the Dolphins – averaged 131.4 yards per game, ranking eighth ranked in the league.

However, with Rhamondre Stevenson struggling with a foot injury, Maye will see so much impact in his starting debut. Hopefully that doesn't include any of his own linemen. Texans 24, Patriots 14.

Chad Finn

Sports columnist

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Chad Finn is a sports columnist for Boston.com. For the past four years, he has been voted the most popular sportswriter in Boston in Channel Media's annual market and research survey. He also writes a weekly sports media column for the Globe and contributes to Globe Magazine.

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