Pitt vs. SMU, Minnesota vs. Illinois Predictions: College Football Odds

I firmly believe that Pitt is the most overrated team in the country.

The Panthers have a net turnover of +7 and were five last week against Syracuse. This will inevitably regress.

They have been outrebounded in three of their last five wins and have averaged less than five yards per play over the last two weeks. You will definitely drop one of these games.

Their secondary is consistently shredded, ranking 87th nationally in EPA per pass allowed and 124th in pass explosiveness allowed. Their 10 interceptions due to poor opposing quarterback play saved them.

Head coach Pat Narduzzi uses plenty of quarter coverage, a look that SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has done quite well against.

I also fully expect Jennings to bounce back after a disgusting three-interception performance against Duke last week. Before the loss, Jennings had thrown two picks on 172 dropbacks in a turnover-heavy play – he can expose Pitt's vulnerable defensive field without making costly mistakes.

While Pitt's first seven was strong against the run (14th in EPA per rush allowed), the Panthers surprisingly struggled with interior zone and power concepts – SMU's bread and butter – because they ranked 86th nationally in rushing percentage allowed broken tackles.

Meanwhile, Rhett Lashlee's front seven was impenetrable against the ground game, ranking second nationally in EPA per rush allowed.

If the Mustangs can contain Pitt's dangerous rushing attack, it will force struggling quarterback Eli Holstein to win the game with his arm. And his turnovers are in danger of regressing, as only five of his 14 turnover-worthy throws ended as interceptions.

I'm betting on SMU to create methodical and explosive pushes while also stopping Pitt's rushing attack and creating some short fields. It's time for someone to expose the Narduzzi Ponzi scheme.

The choice: SMU -7.5

Betting on college football?

Minnesota (-3) over ILLINOIS

I skipped Illinois in this column last week and asked how good the 6-1 Illini are.

After the Illini failed to cover as three-touchdown dogs against Oregon, it's safe to say they are overrated. They are 6-2 with a -2.6% net completion percentage, allowing nearly 100 more total yards allowed (2,928) than they gained (2,852).

Meanwhile, Minnesota plays lights-out football. The Gophers have won three straight Big Ten games behind a top-15 defense (13th nationally in EPA per plays allowed) and ever-improving quarterback play from Max Brosmer.

Brosmer has historically been good at the FCS level with New Hampshire, and it took him a while to adjust to the Power 4 ranks. But he completed a whopping 75% of his passes during the winning streak, throwing for 680 passes and six touchdowns with no interceptions.

Brosmer and Co. should have no problem fielding an Illini defense that ranks 116th nationally in completion percentage allowed, including 95th against the pass and 115th against the run.

Last week: 2-1. Michigan State (L). Oregon (W). Kansas (W)
2024 season: 14-12.

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by beating Sandy Alcantara at 40/1 to win the NL Cy Young.