Polymarket's presidential bets may not be resolved until after the inauguration

A banner above the “2024 Presidential Election Winners” market suggests we may not know who the next president will really be until Inauguration Day.

“This presidential market unravels when the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all call the election for the same candidate,” Polymarket said. “In the unlikely event that this does not occur, the market will remain open until the inauguration and a decision will be made as to who receives the inauguration.”

Polymarket has since opened a market solely dependent on who takes office, which is scheduled to take place on January 20, 2025. Currently, the probability of Trump being inaugurated in this market is 56%, with Kamala Harris at about 42%.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell stocks based on the outcome of a specific event and only make a decision when that event actually occurs. Polymarket users buy stocks depending on which outcome they believe is more likely. Stock prices or “quotas” rise and fall depending on demand. So if the event occurs as the trader predicted, the contract or “bet” rises to $1 and is paid out – or falls to $0 if it doesn’t.

While the probability of a Trump victory has fallen in some prediction markets, Polymarket on Monday showed a 58 percent chance of the former president winning the election over Harris.

In late October, Polymarket admitted that a French citizen with “extensive trading experience” was responsible for about $28 million funneled into the presidential election market.

This subsequently swung the odds in Trump's favor, but Polymarket said it found no evidence of market manipulation, instead saying the trader had “taken a directional position based on personal views of the election.” However, political scientists, pollsters and other prediction market experts continue to view the problem as market manipulation.

Polymarket did not immediately respond AssetsPlease comment.

If Polymarket potentially keeps the market open until Inauguration Day, it could also suggest that the election will not be decided by steps Congress takes in December and January to certify the results, including a joint session on January 6, in which the votes are counted.

When will we find out the official election results?

While it is nearly impossible to predict when the election results will be final, there is some likelihood that Trump's camp will challenge the election results if they are not in his favor. Finally, he did the same after the 2020 election, which led to recounts and the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

This means it is unlikely that there will be clear election results tomorrow – or even this week.

“Given the current situation, it is likely that we will not have a clear result on election night, especially given the legal and logistical complexities involved,” said Adrienne Uthe, founder and strategic advisor of communications and risk management company Kronus Communications Assets. “Expect recounts, legal challenges and possible delays in key battleground states.”

Polymarket is hedging against this by extending the market's opening time, reflecting uncertainty about when a final decision will be made, she said.

But Michael J. Montgomery, a political scientist and former diplomat who teaches at the University of Michigan-Dearborn, instead believes that a “reliable call” of the race by reputable media organizations could come as early as midnight Eastern Time on Tuesday, if not before.

Unless the race goes to Pennsylvania, where no early or absentee ballots can be counted before Election Day, he said. Still, Montgomery said he expects some competition from the Trump campaign.

“The Trump campaign and its allies have invested so much in preparing to challenge the results in so many states that several challenges are certain to prevail,” he said. “However, I doubt they will be more successful this time than in 2020.”

Polymarket's warning suggests that the cryptocurrency-based prediction market believes the results could be successfully disputed, but Montgomery said he believes they are incorrect. Additionally, certification of the election will occur on January 6, 2025, two full weeks before the inauguration, he said.

This year, a change to the electoral process will be used in 2022 as a bipartisan response to the 2021 insurrection, and one new condition will be particularly important this year: the vice president does not have the power to accept or reject Electoral College votes during He presides over a joint session of Congress. Among other things, the new procedures also make it more difficult to raise objections to the counting of votes, it is said appeal.

In any case, it is better not to count on concrete results early on.

“This election could be a marathon, not a sprint,” Uthe said. “Therefore, patience and vigilance are essential.”

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