Predictions, tips and best bets for Sam Houston vs. Florida International – Week 9 of college football

Prepare for an exciting C-USA battle as the Florida International Panthers welcome the Sam Houston Bearkats to Pitbull Stadium.

The Bearkats are just one win away from bowl eligibility, and my Sam Houston vs. Florida International predictions have them coming out victorious.

Read on as I explain why I like Sam Houston covering the route with free college football picks for Tuesday, October 22nd.

Sam Houston vs Florida International prediction and best bet

My best choice
Sam Houston -6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

The Sam Houston Bearkats are finding their mark in FBS play.

The Bearkats were an FCS school until 2023. They have won eight of their last 11 contests against FBS and are one win away from bowl game eligibility.

They achieved this with a high-scoring offense and a decent defense. This combination has helped them cover eight of their last ten games and four of six this season.

The Bearkats offense could be without QB1 Hunter Watson. The junior signal-caller was injured in last week's loss to Western Kentucky and his status for Tuesday is uncertain, but they shouldn't need him as a backup against the Florida International Panthers.

Sam Houston has a strong ground game and has scored over 250 points in four of his last five games. Watson is a big part of that success, but QB2 Jase Bauer is also a capable rusher who has a week to prepare for a soft Panthers rushing defense.

Florida International is punished on the ground, allowing 203 rushing yards per collision. They have given up the second-most rushing TDs in C-USA (19) and face a Bearkats rushing game averaging 219 yards a night and 13 touchdowns.

Now Sam Houston has to slow down the Panthers' offense.

The Bearkats could be on pause. QB1 Keyone Jenkins was injured last week and is questionable. QB2 Amari Jones is also listed as questionable, which could lead to it falling into the hands of QB3 Haden Carlson.

Carlson has a strong arm, but he threw two picks in relief last week. He faces an opportunistic but somewhat leaky Bearkats pass defense with seven picks but also 10 touchdowns.

FIU doesn't run the ball well (102 yards per game) so they can't cover. The Bearkats have a stingy rushing defense, and the Panthers will struggle with or without Jenkins under center. I expect Sam Houston to successfully control the line of scrimmage, move the chains, and do so often enough to outscore the Panthers by a TD.

Sam Houston vs. Florida International Same Game Parlay (SGP)

Sam Houston -6.5

Over 45.5

Sam Houston has one of the best rushing offenses in the country and the Panthers are among the worst at stopping him. The Bearkats will run roughshod over FIU, and if Watson enters as a dual threat, they can clear the total on their own.

Still, FIU puts the ball in the end zone and averages 27 points per game. The Bearkats' stopping unit gives up nearly 30 points per road game and 231 pass yards per road game. Any Panthers QB can do it to some extent, and they could have success with any of their signal-callers under center.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Sam Houston vs Florida International odds

Sam Houston vs Florida International live odds

Opening odds for Sam Houston vs. Florida International

• Distribution between Sam Houston and Florida International: Sam Houston -8.5
• Money line between Sam Houston and Florida International: Sam Houston -225, Florida International +190
• Sam Houston vs. Florida International Over/Under: 46.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Sam Houston vs. Florida International spread and over/under analysis

• The uncertainty surrounding Watson caused the spread to drop from -8.5 at the opener to just -6.5 (-110).
• The Bearkats are the away team at 5-2-0 ATS and 2-1-0 ATS.
• FIU has bigger problems at QB, but the numbers have still shifted in their direction. The Panthers are 4-3-0 ATS and 2-1-0 ATS at home.
• Watson's injury also caused the over/under numbers to drop from 46.5 (-110) to 45.5 (-110). Sam Houston has a 3-4-0 record for the under, while FIU has a record of 4-3-0 for the over.

Sam Houston vs Florida International betting trend worth knowing

Sam Houston State has covered the spread in 8 of its last 12 games (+3.60 units / 27% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Sam Houston vs. Florida International.

Information about the game Sam Houston vs. Florida International

Sam Houston's latest injuries against Florida International

Sam Houston vs Florida International Tech bettor

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