Republicans continue to gain over Democrats in latest voter registration update

Republican voters nearly tripled the number of Democratic voters in October, according to data released today.

Republicans most recently gained 16,945 registered voters, compared to 6,015 for Democrats. Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in recent months, and Democrats now outnumber Republicans by about 906,000.

Notably, unaffiliated registrants outnumbered both parties last month, with 44,484 new registrants. Obviously, it is difficult to predict how they will vote.

Democrats now make up 37.7% of registered voters, while Republicans make up 24.2% of voters statewide. These rates are similar to last month's — with more than 6.7 million registered voters in the state, it's difficult to improve the overall makeup.

The last day to register to vote in Tuesday's election was October 15th. Friday's voter registration update is the last before the election.

Zoom in on NJ-7

All eyes are on New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, which many consider to be the only truly competitive federal election in the state (and one of the most competitive in the country).

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) faces a challenge from Sue Altman in a contest that has seen significant outside spending.

The 7th District gained nearly 5,000 registrants in October. Independent voter registrants accounted for 3,081 registrations in the district, a clear majority. Democrats gained 446 registered voters and Republicans gained 1,243 — reason enough for Republicans to be hopeful, while still keeping in mind that the new independent voters could vote any way they want.

In the 7th, registered Democrats make up 30.5% of the electorate, while Republicans make up 33.6% of the electorate. No party can operate without the approval of independent voters, who make up a majority of 34.8% of voters in the district.

Here's what the district was made up of at this point in 2022: 30.7% Democrats, 33.4% Republicans and 34.8% unaffiliated. Republicans have suffered the smallest losses, but the electorate is largely unchanged in partisanship compared to 2022.

(Compared to 2020 or earlier, it would be on par given redistricting.)

There are no hidden indicators in this data about who might win (nor are there any known indicators in the advanced voting data). The answer will only be of use on Tuesday evening. Tune in.

Review

Before we proceed, let's take a comprehensive look at voter registration data in presidential election years.

If you compare this month's data with that of 2020, you can see the not insignificant gap between Republicans and Democrats.

In 2020, Democrats made up 38.9% of voters, compared to 37.7% today. Four years ago, Republicans made up 22.3% of the electorate, today they make up 24.2%.

The Democrats' lead, which was 1.08 million voters four years ago, has now fallen to about 900,000. These numbers don't necessarily change the zeitgeist, but they do highlight a trend that shows little sign of stopping.

Democrats can take solace in the fact that they are doing better now than they were in 2016, at least according to voter registration numbers.

At this point in 2016, Democrats represented 35.6% of registered voters. The Trump era brought years of strong voter registration for Democrats, potentially giving the party an untenable lead from the start.