Russia's apparent loss of a new aircraft could be an Intel gain for the West

• Russia appears to have lost one of its new S-70 Okhotnik (Hunter) drones over the weekend.
• The suspected drone crashed in eastern Ukraine, but the cause is still unclear.
• The loss would be a major blow to Russia, but could also be a major intelligence gain for the West.

A plane believed to be a new heavy Russian combat drone crashed in Ukraine over the weekend. A loss would not only be a huge blow to Moscow; It could be a significant intelligence victory for Kiev and its NATO partners, including the United States.

Russia has not built very many of the S-70 Okhotnik-B (Hunter) drones that made their combat debut during the ongoing Ukraine War.

On Saturday, video footage circulated on social media showing the suspected S-70 plummeting out of the sky, leaving a trail of smoke behind it – an indication that the plane had suffered some kind of damage. Photos later showed the plane wreckage on the ground.

The plane's wreckage was discovered in Kostiantynivka, a town in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, just a few miles behind the front line. It is unclear what mission the plane was on when it crashed.

The exact cause of the crash is unknown, but there is speculation about what may have happened. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have publicly commented on the incident.

Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think tank wrote in an assessment Sunday that some Russian sources said Moscow accidentally shot down the S-70 in a friendly fire incident. Open-source intelligence reports on social media supported this theory, saying the drone was shot down by one of Russia's few fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jets.

As to whether the downing of the plane was an accident or intentional, ISW analysts wrote that other Russian sources suspected that the drone operators lost control of the plane and deliberately shot it down to prevent Ukraine from gaining access to the plane advanced technology of the system.

Business Insider cannot immediately verify either theory, but Ukraine has access to the wreckage based on photos taken at the crash site.

Samuel Bendett, a consultant at the Center for Naval Analyzes and an expert on drones and Russian defense issues, said the apparent loss of the S-70 was a “significant victory” for Western intelligence because it was Moscow's flagship drone project for more than 20 years a decade.

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Photos taken at the crash site show Ukrainian troops already examining the suspected S-70 wreckage, a scenario that Russia – or any military – would likely prefer to avoid with new and sensitive technology.

“Presumably it has world-class resources and investments, materials and products, including microelectronics and other key components,” Bendett told BI.

Bendett said NATO countries ahead of Russia in developing unmanned combat aircraft were likely working on their own designs. Owning this aircraft could shed light on how it works, its weaknesses, and how best to counteract it. Additionally, since there aren't many S-70s, the loss of one could set back Moscow's program, although Bendett said that “ongoing experimentation with such designs will not stop.”

The S-70 “Hunter”, which is similar in shape to the US military's RQ-170 Sentinel built by Lockheed Martin, has been in development since the early 2010s and completed its first flight in 2019. Only two of the jet-powered drones — which weigh about 20 tons and have a wingspan of 65 feet — are believed to have been built.

Both Ukraine and Russia have relied heavily on drones in warfare, although they have primarily used mass-produced, cheap drones instead of heavier and more expensive systems.

Bendett said Ukraine and Russia use impressive-range drones that can cause major damage and problems for air defense, as is the case with the S-70, but some other drones can do those tasks for a fraction of the price.

He added that this presented a dilemma for Moscow. Should it continue development of the S-70, even though the few it has would be at great risk, or devote more resources to far cheaper, long-range attack drones? The answer remains to be seen.