Saturday's League One and League Two tips: Jones is 14/1 to keep the Reds out of the treble

Nathan Jones' Charlton host Wrexham in London this weekend

Leg 1: Charlton Athletic v Wrexham, Saturday 3pm: Back the draw at 11/5

Charlton, so often the draw specialists last season, could be heading in that direction again with two in their last two games and three all season.

Wrexham themselves have scored two of their six draws away from home, but it is their goals for and against that ensure a draw on Saturday. Supporters scored under 2.5 goals in five of their six away games at the Racecourse, and the only one where overs came was the 3-1 defeat at Birmingham.

Wrexham recorded just 0.37xG at home to Huddersfield in midweek and with the way the Addicks are lined up, they could be difficult for Phil Parkinson's brilliant side to break down.

KEY OPTA STAT: After losing four consecutive home league games between January and February 2024, Charlton have lost just one of their last 13 games in the Valley since then (W5 D7).

Exeter have lost just two of their last 11 away league games (W7 D2), with both defeats in this stint coming by a 2-1 scoreline, and may be a bit undervalued in terms of betting here.

With an excellent defensive record away from home and having just conceded, they might be good enough for a point, but definitely good enough to keep the goals down. While the under 2.5 goals are worth a second look, Huddersfield's strength leads me to say no to the BTTS 1/1and Gary Caldwell's side have kept three straight clean sheets away from home to back it up.

KEY OPTA STAT: After winning their first two away league games against Huddersfield Town in the 1970s, Exeter City have since won just two of their last 10 such games against the Terriers (D4 L4).

Posh were completely threatening in midweek with a massive 5-1 home win against Blackpool and their last three games have now seen 5-1 wins, 3-1 defeats and 3-3 draws.

The over 2.5 goals are short enough 1/2 and a little shorter than we'd normally expect, so with the 3.5 goals for Saturday, while Posh seems to be back to its best entertainment offering.

In fact, in their Saturday defeat at Wycombe they gave up 2.20xG and conceded three big chances, as well as creating three big chances. Bolton have lost just two of their last 18 home league games (W10 D6) and have scored a total of 37 goals in that time.

KEY OPTA STAT: Peterborough have lost their last three consecutive away games in the league and will be looking to avoid losing four in a row for the first time since September 2022, with the 1-0 loss to Bolton being their fourth defeat in that previous stint.

Walsall have scored two or more goals in each of their last three away league games (W2 D1) and will be looking to score more than one goal in four consecutive EFL away games for the first time since August 2015.

They continued in excellent form during the week with a 3-1 home win against Carlisle – and a dominant performance in xG, shots on target and big chances created. Everything was achieved with just 33% possession.

Walsall have already scored 12 goals away from home and this looks like a perfect game for their counter-attacking style.

KEY OPTA STAT: Walsall have played three of their last four league games against Lancashire sides, as many as their previous 20 such games combined.

Grimsby have given us two good performances already this season, giving us a single win in midweek with a 0-1 win against Tranmere. Nigel Adkins' side aren't particularly good at the moment, but Grimsby had a superior xG of 1.74 away from home and also created the better chances with a deserved three points.

David Artell's side are also becoming more and more entertaining and although they had a poor points tally on Tuesday, they are F8 A12 at home and F9 A10 away.

MK Dons are more aggressive under their new manager and have scored five goals from two in two wins – playing more up front and getting their number 10 into the box with well-timed runs. This game could be a good combination, but I'm having a hard time breaking it down.

KEY OPTA STAT: Grimsby Town are unbeaten in their last four league games against MK Dons (W2 D2) and have scored exactly one goal in each of those games.

Salford have two wins out of six and Colchester just one win out of six, and neither are particularly suited to an overall win based on those stats.

In fact, Salford often have poor prices, while Col U looks way too short 1/1 for the home win. They have failed to score more than one goal in a League 2 game in October and have won just one of their last five league home games (D2 L2), although they have kept two clean sheets in that time, the same number as last year in total 23 such games.

Salford have failed to win any of their last five away league games (D4 L1) and could go six away without a win for the first time since March 2021 (seven games), and both could just about make up for nothing thanks to Salford's endless passing game.

KEY OPTA STAT: Colchester United have lost just one of their 10 league games against Salford City (W6 D3) and have conceded more than one goal in just one of those games.

You can back Alan's League One treble on Saturday at 14/1 0.5 points

You can back Alan's League Two treble on Saturday at 14/1 0.5 points