Severe weather is returning to North Texas, bringing heavy rainfall

NORTH TEXAS – I am currently monitoring two areas on the radar. As a larger system approaches from the west, I expect increased activity in our western DMA.

TONIGHT: Short-term/high-resolution models do not agree very well for the next 72 hours. The HRRR shows that isolated convection develops late in the evening ahead of the incoming pulse from the west. This area could also see some limited instability after sunset and allow for some decent updrafts. However, the reporting on this seems to me to be overestimated. We'll see.

SUNDAY: The HRRR for tomorrow morning indicates an increased risk of rain with possible flash flooding. Current trends suggest this will continue to occur north of Highway 380 in Denton and Collin counties.

Tomorrow afternoon should be busier than today. Short-term convection models suggest a broken line is approaching the metroplex, with isolated cells potentially producing damaging winds and large hail.

MONDAY: Finally the busiest and last day of active weather for a while. Trends indicate that a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) could form ahead of the cold front early Monday afternoon and move through the metropolitan area between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. Please note that this image reflects the opinion of this model. On some models it continues later in the afternoon. A QLCS typically produces strong winds, heavy rainfall, and brief, spinning tornadoes. I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least a few tornado warnings in there.