Showdown between Harris and Trump: New national poll shows who is ahead two weeks after Election Day

A new national poll shows former President Trump with a lead over Vice President Harris in the race to succeed President Biden in the White House.

According to a Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday evening, Trump has 47% support among likely voters nationwide, with Harris at 45% on a ballot that also includes third-party and independent candidates.

That's a change from the Journal's previous national poll, conducted in late August, in which Harris had a two-point lead.

The former president's lead is within the new poll's margin of error, meaning either Trump or the vice president could potentially lead the race.

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Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump waves at a campaign rally at the Greensboro Coliseum on Tuesday, October 22, in Greensboro, North Carolina. (AP/Alex Brandon)

The Wall Street Journal poll — of 1,500 registered voters surveyed Oct. 19-22 — also shows Trump with a three-point lead (49% to 46%) over Harris in a head-to-head matchup.

The poll shows views of Harris have become more negative since August, with her favorable rating eight points below water and her approval rating as vice president at 42% to 54%. Meanwhile, views of Trump have improved, with voters approving of his performance so far in the White House by a margin of 52% to 48%.

The new poll follows a Fox News national poll conducted Oct. 11-14 and released last week that showed the Republican presidential nominee with a two-point lead over the Democratic Party standard-bearer.

Many other national polls in this area in the last two weeks, including CBS News, Marist and USA Today/Suffolk University polls, have shown Harris with a slight edge over Trump. But the polls are largely within the margin of error.

The latest national poll from Fox News.

Harris replaced a struggling President Biden as the 2024 Democratic nominee on July 21 and immediately saw a surge in fundraising and a rise in her poll numbers.

Harris was ahead in most national polls during the Democratic National Convention in late August and the first and only debate between the vice president and former president in early September.

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But many national polls conducted in late September and October suggest Trump is winning at Harris' expense.

The latest Fox News poll results (Trump with 50% support and Harris with 48%) marked a reversal from last month, when the vice president was ahead.

Carville argued that Harris will win for three reasons: she has more money than Trump, he's a loser and it's just a “feeling” he has. (Getty Images)

“Overall, the move toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, particularly if he makes gains among college-educated voters,” said veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who runs Fox News polls with Republican Daron Shaw. “However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely depend on which side is more effective at getting its voters to the polls than at persuading them.”

While national polls are helpful, the race for the White House is not based on the national popular vote but is a battle for states and their electoral votes.

And the latest polls in the seven crucial battleground states whose razor-thin results decided President Biden's victory over Trump in 2020 and will likely decide whether Harris or Trump win the 2024 election are largely within the Limit of error.

The Fox News poll showed Harris with a six-point lead over Trump among respondents in all seven battleground states.

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While polls suggest there will be a race within margins, Harris is the clear front-runner in the battle for campaign funds, another key metric in presidential politics.

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at the University of Wisconsin La Crosse in La Crosse, Wis., on Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin) (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

According to recent federal fundraising records, the vice president had a massive financial advantage over the former president entering the last full month of campaigning.