SMU's path to the ACC Championship and the College Football Playoff is revealed

Every week that SMU comes away with a win brings the Mustangs one step closer to a goal that no one thought possible at the start of the season.

As a new team competing in a power conference for the first time in decades, expectations were high for what SMU could do in the ACC, but the program was given a cap on what it could achieve in the preseason.

Many college football experts said even if SMU was picked to finish seventh in the conference, it would be a challenge to post a winning record. The teams that advanced to the Big 12 last year struggled. The ultimate goal was a bowl game.

But now, after clinching bowl eligibility in the seventh game of the year, the Mustangs have a chance to play for more.

“I think our guys know that we just put ourselves in a position to keep playing for everything,” SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee said after Saturday's 40-10 win at Stanford.

The Mustangs (6-1, 3-0) are still in the running for the ACC title and even a spot in the new, expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. ESPN's playoff predictor gives SMU a 31 percent chance of making the CFP The Athletics The model has them as a bubble team with a 33% chance.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Mustangs have a 23.4% chance of winning the ACC in their first year and a 14% chance of winning their final five games of the season.

While the numbers say the Mustangs' playoff hopes are greater than their chances of winning the conference, reaching the playoffs without a conference championship on their resume appears to be an uphill battle.

Unless SMU can automatically secure a bid as one of the four top-ranked conference champions, it will only get in if it is awarded an at-large bid. That could force the selection committee to make a difficult decision between fielding a conference runner-up and a one-loss ACC team that didn't make it to the conference championship game. Given the talent in other conferences like the SEC and Big Ten, there may not be room for three ACC teams.

In this situation, SMU would not be able to take control of its own destiny, but for the most part it would be on the road to the conference championship game. According to ESPN, the Mustangs are undefeated in ACC play (3-0) and are favorites in the remaining games.

But even if SMU wins and finishes 8-0 in the ACC, Miami and Clemson could do the same. The conference's top three teams are not playing each other this year.

That would force the ACC into a complicated tiebreaker situation. The direct comparison and the win rate against common opponents would not differentiate the three teams. Instead, it would likely come down to the combined win percentage of conference opponents.

As things currently stand, SMU and Miami would lock up the two spots based on their conference opponents' past records, but that could change in the final five weeks of conference play.

Of course, if one of those three teams loses, which likely still has almost half of the season left, that could pave the way for the others. If multiple teams lose, it can open the door for one-loss conference teams like Duke, Syracuse and Virginia Tech.

Pitt is still in the conversation with Clemson, Miami and SMU as the Panthers are 6-0 and 2-0 in ACC play. SMU hosts Pitt on November 2nd (with the Mustangs as the favorites), and that game will make a team's chances of getting to Charlotte in December that much more difficult.

Pitt also still has to play Clemson on November 16th.

SMU's next two games against Duke (6-1, 2-1) and Pitt are the two most important remaining on the schedule. If SMU can maintain its perfect ACC record by then, it will face three final opponents with an overall conference record of 3-8.

“I don’t think we’re past our toughest game,” Lashlee said. “Yeah, the preseason hype, we got through our toughest games on paper but now you see, and I think five of our last six opponents have a winning record. All the teams that are still on our schedule are playing good football.”

The SMU controls its own destiny as it stands. It's in a position that most teams would do anything for at this time of year.

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