Surprising polls show that the reckoning for Donald Trump may finally be here

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Election Day is finally upon us and Kamala Harris is suddenly looking stronger than ever.

A weekend of campaigning in swing states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia was marred by the political equivalent of a bomb exploding on Saturday. Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer dropped a shocker near the end of the game: The Des Moines RegisterThe poll shows Kamala Harris three points ahead of Donald Trump in the state.

Is a new state suddenly in play? Quite possible – despite all the excitement from the Trump camp on Saturday evening and into Sunday that this was an “outlier”, this is only the case insofar as other polls have proceeded extremely cautiously generous Sample of Republican-leaning constituencies throughout the election campaign season. Selzer sticks to her guns.

Her polling would have to be much further out than in the last two election cycles for Harris to lose the state — and a win there would put a dent in Trump's path to victory. Even if the difference is as much as four percentage points, it's hard to say that the results should do anything other than raise the loudest alarm bells at Mar-a-Lago.

Consider the results among women: Harris leads Trump by an impressive 2-1 margin among women 65 and older. Amid a campaign season dominated by ads about the deadly consequences of abortion bans that have led hospitals in red states to delay life-saving treatments for pregnant women, there is only one real path: a roe Invoice.

That's right. If the Selzer poll is somewhat confirmed tomorrow, we face a decades-long political backlash against overturning the Supreme Court's conservative decision Roe v. Wade. What consequences will this have for the presidential race? What about the Senate race in Montana, where GOP candidate Tim Sheehy has called women “indoctrinated” on the issue of abortion rights and dismissively said it's all younger women want to talk about? How about Texas, where visiting Cancún senator and would-be podcaster Ted Cruz faces what could be the toughest election night fight of his political career? Or in Nebraska, where a sitting Republican senator is suddenly at risk of being unseated by an independent who says he won't caucus with either party?

For days it has looked as if cracks were beginning to appear in the coalition that Trump formed in 2016 and which he tried to reassemble this year. A last-minute move at three North Carolina state rallies, which he won twice, suggested to many that his insides there were showing signs of danger. His campaign no longer appears to be seriously focused on Wisconsin, instead turning attention to Pennsylvania. Other polls have shown Harris with a several-point lead in Michigan, suggesting that if a candidate is the favorite to win, it is her.

We don’t yet know how profound the impact of such a massive gender gap will be. What we do know is that they appear to be widespread: A second survey published by The New York Times/Siena College placed Harris ahead of Trump this weekend in the following battlegrounds: Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. The two candidates were tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania; Trump, once dominant in the race, now only leads in Arizona.

It's also clear that Tuesday will likely be another night of victories for abortion rights activists, who have ballot initiatives before voters in Nebraska, Florida, Maryland and other states.

One thing is certain; Kamala Harris seems to have the wind firmly at her back. The real question on Tuesday: How far will it take them?