Texas Democrats have the best chance yet of defeating Ted Cruz after the Colin Allred debate

There's a reason why no Democrat has won a statewide victory in Texas since 1994.

To pull off such an upset would require a uniquely talented politician running a near-perfect campaign. This candidate would have to demonstrate discipline, calm and balance. Be telegenic and quick on your feet. The candidate would have to be a Texan through and through, with an identity steeped in elements of the state's cultural zeitgeist. The person would have to run in a halfway decent national political environment. And even if all of those boxes were checked, that rare Democrat would still have to face an extraordinarily unpopular Republican running a lackluster campaign without much support from his own colleagues.

Enter: Rep. Colin Allred.

Allred's remarkable debate appearance on Tuesday sparked a flood of Instagram slides, TikTok videos and X-posts. Both in Texas and nationally, news feeds this week were flooded with clips of the former professional football player rebuking Sen. Ted Cruz for hiding in a “supply closet” during the attempted insurrection at the U.S. Capitol – an insurrection by a mob led by Cruz “Had hidden himself helped whip it up. Others showed him repeatedly referencing the time Cruz flew to Cancun, Mexico, as hundreds of Texans died in the middle of winter freezes, or bashing him on his pro-abortion stance – an issue that resonates with white female voters who flock to the GOP have left is crucial.

But an impressive debate performance alone isn't enough for a Democrat to win a state like Texas. However, polls, fundraising efforts and a changing political climate all looked promising for Allred. Today, Texas Democrats find themselves in an extraordinary situation that has proven elusive over the past three decades: They have a real chance of winning a statewide race.

As of Thursday, Cruz's FiveThirtyEight polling average was at 48.4%. A Morning Consult poll released Thursday showed Allred down by just one point. An internal memo from the Senate Leadership Fund — the Mitch McConnell-aligned super PAC focused on electing Republicans to the Senate — left Cruz ahead by just one point. Another poll transcript released by the National Republican Senatorial Committee was omitted any Race information. If the numbers were too bad to share, that would certainly be a worrying sign for Cruz.

Democrats have had hope for statewide races before, but this time is different. In 2022, Beto O'Rourke was narrowly trailing Governor Greg Abbott in some polls. But in early October, Abbott was consistently above 50% in the polls and ended up beating O'Rourke by 9 points. Senator John Cornyn's 2020 re-election campaign was largely neck-and-neck with former rising star MJ Hegar (whose campaign one of us worked on). But when voting began, Cornyn pulled away and was at over 50% with some consistency. Cornyn scored a comfortable 10-point win.

The last time Texans had a race this close and this late in the election was Cruz's re-election in 2018, in which he narrowly defeated O'Rourke by less than 3 points. But this year the senator's polling looked rosier than it does today. In the world of campaign politics, every incumbent polled below 50% when the votes are just days away leaves the door open for loss.

Just ask former Georgia Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. In their 2020 elections, incumbent Republicans in a historically red state, just like Cruz now, failed to reach 50% in public polls. Both lost to exciting, young, dynamic Democratic challengers and cost the GOP the Senate.

Recent performances suggest Cruz is feeling that heat. On Fox News host Sean Hannity's show Monday, Cruz begged for donations and clogged his campaign website a half-dozen times. In another Fox appearance, Cruz lashed out at his own party — attacking Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by name for not spending on his race and accusing him of spending his $400 million only on senators, ” who obey him.”

Why was this race different? It's true that Cruz is lashing out. But while the senator refused to clarify his own positions and was relentlessly ridiculed by the press, Allred put together a highly impressive campaign. He has portrayed himself as everything Cruz is not, contrasting Cruz's behavior on Jan. 6 with his own willingness to defend the House floor as the mob stormed in. He painted quite a picture of himself that day: taking off his jacket and sending loving words, texting his wife and preparing to physically combat the threat to democracy.

Allred is also a former NFL linebacker with a bright white smile. He helped a Texas family free their Marine son from Russian captivity while Cruz did not, and the Marine's father, Joey Reed, has created blistering campaign ads with the express aim of removing Cruz from office. Allred's bravery alone may not be enough – but compared to Cruz's cowardice, it's a real showstopper.

Allred is also running in a fundamentally different political environment than O'Rourke, Hegar and other promising Texas Democrats. Progressive groups and Allred's campaign have invested tens of millions of dollars in the Democratic political infrastructure in Texas. This huge injection of resources has helped improve Allred's starting point – and the shorter the climb, the less likely you are to fall.

As of September 30, Allred had raised a total of $67 million during his run, surpassing Hegar's 2020 total of $29 million and rivaling O'Rourke's record-breaking $79 million from 2018. Admittedly, Cruz has surpassed Allred, amassing nearly $75. As of September 30, Allred's fundraising expenditures totaled around $100,000 million. But Allred's fundraising only increased as the election approached. In the third quarter, Allred brought in a staggering $30 million, surpassing Cruz's $21 million and allowing Allred to outperform the incumbent in the race's all-important home stretch.

Allred has put that money to good use, flooding the airwaves with ads that highlight tried-and-tested and broadly appealing populist campaign themes like securing the border, defending abortion access, protecting Medicare and Social Security, and highlighting his NFL past.

In contrast, Cruz has plunged headfirst into the culture wars with his advertising. Its ads mirror those of former President Donald Trump's campaign and emphasize trans children's participation in youth sports. One such ad from a Cruz-supporting PAC shows a large black man in an “Allred” jersey brutally attacking a girl attempting a flag football catch. Obviously, the idea that NFL linebackers play girls flag football is false (as is the claim that you can clothesline a receiver in flag football). It's possible, although perhaps optimistic, that ads that use fear-mongering against nonexistent threats are starting to ring hollow with voters.

But this is Texas. Even though Allred performed better than any other statewide Democratic candidate in recent history, he is not the favorite on Election Day. Kamala Harris' presidential campaign is unlikely to devote significant resources to mobilizing Texas voters. Cruz, on the other hand, will certainly benefit from Trump's efforts in Texas.

Furthermore, a winning Democratic coalition in Texas is extremely diverse and fragile. To reach 50%+1, Allred needs to increase his score in urban centers, particularly among voters of color. He also has to convince the Hispanic voters in South Texas who are willing to change And He must do this while maintaining the favor of college-educated white suburban voters.

It's a huge mountain to climb – and one that hasn't been climbed in 30 years. But even if Allred doesn't emerge victorious, he has still pushed Democrats further than any other candidate in recent memory.