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Texas Tech Football at Iowa State: Scouting Report, Prediction

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Texas Tech Football at Iowa State: Scouting Report, Prediction

Don Williams
| Lubbock Avalanche Journal

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The Texas Tech football team, coming off losses to Baylor and TCU, looks to break a two-game losing streak when the Red Raiders visit No. 10 Iowa State on Saturday in Ames, Iowa.

This is a big task. Iowa State (7-0, 4-0 in Big 12) has won its first seven games for the first time since 1938. The Cyclones are looking to win six straight Big 12 games for the first time since last season. Tech has won two straight in the series, including 14-10 on a cold night in Ames two years ago.

The Cyclones are the 13 1/2-point favorite in the game at 2:30 p.m. at Jack Trice Stadium.

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When Texas Tech football runs the ball

Tahj Brooks (179 carries, 925 yards, nine touchdowns) has rushed for at least 95 yards in each of his last 18 games and has surpassed 100 yards in 15 games. He finished last week's 35-34 loss at TCU strong after subbing himself out in the third quarter with an injury. While Brooks was out, speedy freshman J'Koby Williams shined.

Although Iowa State ranks ninth in the FBS in scoring defense and 18th in total defense, Iowa's Kaleb Johnson paced the Cyclones with 187 yards rushing, and two weeks ago Central Florida's RJ Harvey and Jacurri Brown totaled 196 and 196, respectively .154 yards. The Cyclones' leading tacklers are S Malik Verdon, S Beau Freyler and WLB Kooper Ebel with 54, 42 and 41 stops, respectively.

Advantage: Texas Tech

When Texas Tech football fades away

Behren Morton is expected to be back after missing the second half last week with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. True freshman Will Hammond has shown he's ready for the Big 12 no matter what.

The hot hands in Tech's receiving corps belong to lanky WR Caleb Douglas (39 catches, 554 yards, four touchdowns), who has been a substitute for the past three weeks. Iowa State's pass defense, ranked second in the FBS, also has IR Josh Kelly (60-609-3) and WR Coy Eakin (26-395-6) to keep an eye on.

The Cyclones have a strong presence on the back end, with middle safety Beau Freyler, FS Jeremiah Cooper (seven interceptions since the start of 2023) and CBs Myles Purchase (19 pass breakups since last season) and Jontez Williams (interceptions in four). consecutive games).

Advantage: Iowa State

When Iowa State football is on

Tech ILBs Jacob Rodriguez (70 tackles) and Ben Roberts (58 tackles) anchor the Tech defense, while S CJ Baskerville (44 tackles) also factors in run support.

Iowa State is rotating RBs Carson Hansen (70 carries, 398 yards, seven touchdowns), Jaylon Jackson (68-329-2) and Abu Sama (60-303-1). Hansen rushed for 97 yards against Baylor, 96 yards and three touchdowns at West Virginia and 91 yards and two touchdowns against UCF in the last three games. Sama is the home run hitter with six TD runs of at least 50 yards in his career. Jackson, a Texan from Burleson Centennial, had 96 yards against Houston and 107 against Baylor in the Cyclones' first two Big 12 games.

Advantage: Iowa State

When Iowa State football passes away

It's a possible mismatch, as Texas Tech ranks last out of 133 FBS teams in pass defense and Iowa State WRs Jayden Higgins (45-563-6) and Jaylin Noel (37-681-3) are NFL-best -Applicants apply. Higgins (6-foot-4 and 215 pounds) has touchdown catches in eight of nine games since last season, and Noel (5-11, 200) has received more than 95 yards in four of seven games this season.

It doesn't help the Red Raiders that CB Maurion Horn (shoulder) missed almost all of last week's game and CB Bralyn Lux and FS Chapman Lewis, although back, are also dealing with injuries.

DE Harvey Dyson had a performance last week, making a strip sack/fumble recovery and tipping a pass that Lewis intercepted. But playmaking at the top was rare. The Red Raiders' worst sack rate in the Big 12 bodes well for Iowa State QB Rocco Becht (1,712 passing yards, 11 touchdowns).

Advantage: Iowa State

Special teams

Tech kickers have made 15 of 16 field goals, the best rate in the Big 12. Gino Garcia (12 for 12) is one of five FBS kickers to be perfect on at least nine attempts. Iowa State freshman Kyle Konrardy (9-for-12) beat Iowa with a last-minute 54-yarder.

Tech P Jack Burgess and his ISU counterpart Tyler Perkins both averaged 42 yards, although Burgess placed 13 punts and Perkins placed just three inside opponents' 20-yard lines.

Tech's Drae McCray leads the Big 12 with a kickoff return average of 25.8 yards, and ISU's Jaylin Noel ranks second in punt return average with 15.9 yards. However, McCray missed last week and remains questionable (head injury).

Advantage: Texas Tech

Points Prediction: Iowa State 27, Texas Tech 23

Conclusion: Matt Campbell gets Iowa State rolling again. The Cyclones have a 12-3 record in their last 15 games and are undefeated at home this season. That advantage, coupled with Tech's susceptibility to the pass, makes an upset unlikely.

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