Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting, Predictions, Odds, Tips, Lines

One of college football's most historic feuds will be added to the long list of SEC rivalries on Saturday when the No. 1 Texas Longhorns face the No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas (3:30 p.m pm on ABC/ESPN+). ).

The Longhorns received positive news on Monday when coach Steve Sarkisian announced that QB Quinn Ewers would be ready to enter the game after missing the last two games with an oblique injury. Meanwhile, the Sooners enter Saturday afternoon with a new quarterback at the helm. Freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who played opposite sophomore Jackson Arnold in Oklahoma's Week 5 loss to the Auburn Tigers, will start. The line started at Texas -14.5 and stayed the same throughout the week, with the total remaining steady at 50.5 on Sunday.

The Longhorns lead the series 63-51-5 entering Saturday.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Texas (-14.5)
Money line: Texas (-650), Oklahoma (+475)
Over/under: 50.5

Distribution in the first half: Texas -7.5 (-105), Oklahoma +7.5 (-115)
First half moneyline: Texas (-475), Oklahoma (+320)
First half total points: O/U 25.5 points (-115, -115)

Pamela Maldonado's choice: Texas-Oklahoma UNDER 50.5 points

Oklahoma ranks 25th in total defense. This team is made up of players who excel at creating turnovers, pressuring quarterbacks and making crucial stops. R Mason Thomas leads a pass-rush unit that ranks seventh according to PFF and has totaled 18 sacks (tied for fifth) and 13 turnovers (tied for third).

Quarterback Quinn Ewers returns from injury to start for Texas, where he may be dealing with rust after a month-long absence. This could prompt Oklahoma to send more players into coverage and focus on mixing up Ewers with different looks rather than relying heavily on blitzes. Ewers has thrown two interceptions in his three games played, so the Longhorns could adjust their game plan and rely more on the running game or quick, short passes to minimize risk. Both strategies could contribute to a slower pace and a methodical attacking style that favors the under.

Oklahoma's offense lacks explosiveness and ranks 123rd in offensive success rate. Quarterbacks Jackson Arnold and Michael Hawkins Jr. combined to complete just two passes of more than 20 yards, while the seven running backs had just 22 explosive runs, seven of which came from Jovantate Barnes.

I expect both defenses to play a key role in keeping the total under 49, similar to what we saw in Oklahoma's game against Tennessee. If I had to choose a side, I'd lean towards Texas -14 or pass. The Sooners' offense simply lacks the playmakers to keep up effectively.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Texas enters Saturday's race as a double-digit favorite over Oklahoma for the third time since 1978 (-21 in 1996, -14 in 2005).

• Oklahoma is a 14-point underdog (+15 vs. No. 1 Alabama) for the first time since the 2018 CFP semifinals.

• A total of 49.5 points would be the lowest O/U in this matchup since 2014 (46.5). In three of the last four matches there was an over.

More from ESPN