Texas vs. Oklahoma score prediction by an experienced football model

One of college football's premier rivalry games begins as an SEC conference game for the first time, with No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma facing off in the Red River Shootout. Let's look at the latest prediction for the game, which comes from an expert model that determines the winners.

Texas is the No. 1 team in the country in this game for the first time since 1984 and should get quarterback Quinn Ewers back under center after he missed more than two games with an abdominal injury, although rising star Arch Manning is waiting at center Wings for all occasions.

Oklahoma is 1-1 in SEC play after a home loss to Tennessee and a road win against Auburn that included timely defense, which the team may need again as its offense has struggled despite a change at quarterback and ranks 118th in pass performance is 100th in stormy production.

What does the analysis suggest for this weekend's Red River Rivalry game?

To do this, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview the Texas vs. Oklahoma matchup in this Week 7 college football game.

So far, the models give the Longhorns a significant advantage over the Sooners.

SP+ predicts Texas will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 33 to 19 and win the game by a projected margin of 14 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 82 percent chance of winning overall.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a win ratio of 52.2.

According to data from FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas is a 14.5-point favorite against Oklahoma.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 48.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -650 for Texas and +475 for Oklahoma.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Most bettors have more confidence in the Sooners in this rivalry game, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations.

A plurality of bets – 59 percent – have Oklahoma either winning the game in an upset or keeping the score within the line.

The other 41 percent of bets assume Texas will win the game and cover the spread.

Other analytical models also favor the Longhorns over the Sooners this weekend.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Texas is projected to win handily in most 85.1 percent of the FPI computer's recent simulations for the game.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 14.9 percent of Sims.

According to the model's latest projection, Texas is expected to be 15.8 points better than Oklahoma with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction: What the Analyzes Say

Texas ranks first among SEC teams with a 91.4 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.4 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Oklahoma a total win projection of 7.2 games and a 14 percent chance of making the 12-team playoffs.

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 2:30 p.m. central
TV: ABC Network

More… Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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