The first Hawaiian Airlines flight on the chopping block following the Alaska Airlines merger

The first Hawaiian Airlines flight on the chopping block following the Alaska Airlines merger

from Gary Leff on November 3, 2024

I don't like airline mergers, but I was a big supporter of the idea that the Alaska-Hawaii merger was as sensible as it could be. Neither airline dominates the mainland Hawaii market (neither was even the largest player before the merger, and United, Delta, Southwest and American all offer significant service). Alaska does not overlap with other routes flown by Hawaiian.

Any deterioration in Hawaiian Airlines operations that we observe post-merger may have occurred anyway. The airline has struggled over the past five years. The Alaska acquisition is a lifeline.

If anything, Alaska paid too much. There is no real moat in Hawaiian Airlines' markets. Alaska actually only acquires knowledge about flying to destinations in the Pacific and some route rules, most of which are reproducible. And they are getting a fleet made up mostly of long-haul and Hawaii-mainland Airbus planes after finally getting rid of the last of the Airbus fleet planes they acquired as part of their deal for Virgin America.

Today Hawaiian Airlines serves:

• Auckland and Sydney
• Fukuoka, Tokyo Haneda and Narita as well as Osaka in Japan
• Seoul
• Papeete, Pago Pago and Raratonga

Hawaiian Airlines Airbus A330 First Class

It is clear that we will see a shift of some long-haul airlines to Seattle. That means some Hawaiian Airlines widebody aircraft are leaving Honolulu. There may be fewer widebody aircraft between Honolulu and the West Coast and fewer destinations between Honolulu and the Pacific. But it's not just these markets where aircraft are being relocated.

It turns out that this merger may be negative for him personally Mebecause my prediction is that one of the first Hawaii routes that Alaska Airlines will drop is Honolulu – Austin.

1. Alaska wants Hawaiian wide-body aircraft for long-haul international flights in Seattle
2. The Austin flight has never worked particularly well
3. It was a pandemic at first, when many markets were closed and they had to find a place to send their planes. Orlando has already been canceled, but Austin remains.

Hawaiian Airlines Airbus A330 First Class

As I tried to figure out how quickly this decision could be made, I wondered what service obligations might arise from the subsidies Hawaiian received for the route.

A few years before the route began, the Austin airport was looking for money for someone to fly to Hawaii. They also offered incentives for Amsterdam, Beijing, Dublin, Paris, Seoul, Shanghai and Tokyo.

• Amsterdam was supposed to start right at the start of the pandemic, but was delayed. KLM flies this route three times a week.
• Norwegian was supposed to offer Paris connections, but suspended transatlantic operations due to the pandemic.
• At the time, there were rumors that the Delta-Korean joint venture would launch in Seoul, but the KLM proposal came first and the pandemic got in the way. Austin does not offer nonstop flights to Asia.
• Flying to China is certainly off the table at the moment. Apple's large presence in Austin made it seem far-fetched but not crazy in 2019.

KLM Boeing 787 in Austin

However, Austin Airport tells me that “Hawaiian Airline’s incentives expired in 2023,” so there are no requirements for Hawaiian to maintain service.

I've taken the Austin – Honolulu flight a few times. In August, I had no problem using partner miles to get five award seats in first class on the flight for my desired dates. This is not a flight that goes well! I got a great deal for 16,000 Bilt points each (transferred to Virgin Atlantic with 150% bonus), but my bet isn't sustainable.

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