The Funnel Defense Report: Week 5

In our eternal mission to predict the future, in my humble estimation, a top-down look at how an offense might attack its opponent's defense is a good place to start.

Every season we find defenses that excel at what is known as a “run funnel,” meaning that opponents rely unusually heavily on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: defenses that are regularly attacked from the air in neutral situations (generally, that means when the game is within seven points either way).

This column is about identifying those matches. We will get better and more reliable data on how teams attack defenses as the season progresses.

This funnel defense analysis shouldn't be the be-all and end-all for determining your weekly fantasy plays. It's just another data point in your nerve-wracking decision-making about who to play and who to bench.

The NFL's penchant for ground-and-pound football this season has created a unique situation for this funnel defense-focused column. Entering Week 5, there are only five true pass funnel defenses: The Patriots, Lions, Ravens, Bucs and Packers. Every other team is either a light hopper or an extreme hopper. The run will be built at heights the Zoomers have never seen before.

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Pass funnel matchups

Bengals vs. Ravens

Baltimore's defense, mentioned above, fends off opposing attacks. Only six teams are allowing fewer yards before contact per rush and only four teams are giving up a lower rush EPA through Week 4. The Bengals don't strike me as the type of offense that will hit such a wall in Week 5.

The Bengals released the extremely rare Cincy game last week in which Joe Burrow and Co. were below their expected drop-back rate. From Weeks 1 to 3, they were 5 percent above their expected drop-back rate, and in two games against the Ravens in 2023, they were 7 percent above it.

If Baltimore plays two high coverages at the fourth-highest rate in the league, that will likely mean a game full of checkdowns for Burrow. That means a Ja'Marr Chase game. Things could also be fine for the team's tight ends and running backs, although that gets complicated because Chase Brown and Zack Moss share route-running duties, as do Erick All and Mike Gesicki at tight end. Gesicki still has the advantage in terms of usage. He could be interesting here.

Rams vs. Packers

Green Bay's opponents are averaging 4 percent of their expected pass rate overall in Week 4. Offenses against the Packers throw at a 57 percent shooting rate in the neutral game script (when the game is within a score). It's not shockingly high, but it's something.

Maybe, just maybe, it will be enough to sway the Rams from their preferred run-first game plan. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out, LA has become one of the league's most reliable run-first teams: They were 15 percent below their expected drop-back rate in Week 3 and 8 percent below their expected drop-back rate in Week 4. Back rate. Sean McVay's offense is back down 54 percent of his offensive plays in the last two games.

Increased passing volume — with Matthew Stafford, a dropback is a pass — should be a boon for Jordan Whittington, who led the team in targets last week, and TuTu Atwell, who had 40 percent of the Rams' air yards in Week 4. Green Bay's secondary was atrocious in the first month of the season, allowing the fourth-highest drop-back success rate.

I expect Jordan Love to destroy this terrible Rams defense in Week 5. That would leave McVay no choice but to increase the passing volume, as much as he desperately doesn't want to.

A side note on this game: The Rams have seen their first fewest pass attempts against them this season (LA opponents are 5 percent below their expected pass rate). Green Bay could come out on top quite strongly here and break the drop-back volume that served the Packers' pass catchers so well in Week 4. This is something to consider.

Conduct funnel matchups

Jaguars vs. Colts

You clicked on this article because you needed permission to go crazy and pit Tank Bigsby against the NFL's most extreme run-funnel defense in Week 5. You're asking for this permission because you're a crazy zero-RB sufferer who's doing extraordinarily poorly, or because you're in a deep league where it could be bigsby or bust. I can understand both situations.

Travis Etienne led the Jacksonville backfield with 10 runs to seven for Bigsby in Week 4, and it was Bigsby who had the big play out of the backfield – a 58-yarder in which he showed incredible offense. Thanks in part to that long run, Bigsby is now averaging 5.5 yards after contact per carry (Etienne is at a not-atrocious 2.6). Four of Bigsby's 20 carries this season went for more than ten yards. His production is solid and borders on the unreal (on a small selection, I know, I know).

It could very well be that there are enough rushers to compete against the Colts this week. Indy opponents have achieved a pass rate of 50 percent this year, which is the fourth-lowest rate in the league. There's a reason the Colts recorded a league-high 151 rushes in Week 4: They stink. They allow the ninth-highest number of yards before contact per rush and a low stuff rate of 41 percent. It makes ten or twelve touches of the ball for Bigsby (very) realistic, apart from a strange game script when Joe Flacco is in the middle.

I think this is also a good place for the mediocre Etienne.

Vikings vs. Jets

The Jets can neither sustain their advance nor stop the run. It's a bad combination that could lead to a tough season for Aaron Rodgers and his boys.

Only the Colts have a more pronounced run-funnel defense than the Jets this season. The Broncos fully embraced that trend last week when they were an impressive 15 percent below their expected drop-back rate and passed the ball on just 46 percent of their plays in the neutral game script. I think we should see something similar from the Vikings in Week 5.

The Jets were a poor tackling team until Week 4. That's reflected in their 2.67 yards after contact per rush, the third-highest mark in the NFL. That should work well for a Minnesota offensive lineman who has the eighth-highest rushing success rate in the league and the eighth-highest yards after contact per rush.

Kevin O'Connell was only good once in three games (relative to the game script). He seems content to deal with Aaron Jones and, to a much lesser extent, Ty Chandler (the Vikings have a 51 percent success rate when leading). O'Connell has every reason to keep Sam Darnold from throwing into the teeth of a standout Jets secondary. This could mean another low-volume day for Darnold, Justin Jefferson and the rest of Minnesota's passing attack.

49ers vs. Cardinals

This will happen quickly: Expect big numbers from Jordan Mason this week against a woeful Cardinals defense. Arizona's opponents overall are 7 percent below their expected pass rate and give up the fifth-highest EPA to opposing rushers. In Week 4, no team allowed a higher rush EPA than Arizona.

For the normal ones: The Cards allow running backs to score the fifth most fantasy points.

Of course, this could significantly limit the drop-back volume for Brock Purdy and the Niners' pass catchers. Purdy is a screaming (positive) regression candidate, just like me wrote in the regression filesbut Deebo Samuel and the rest could see limited target volume.