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The “most accurate economist” chooses the winner

Posted on by Kennedy
The “most accurate economist” chooses the winner

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French economic researcher Christophe Barraud, who some have called “the most accurate economist in the world,” predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election.

Barraud is chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco. He has been named the top forecaster of the U.S. economy by Bloomberg in 11 of the last 12 years, according to his website. The market economist specializes in macroeconomics and studied financial economics at the University of Paris-Dauphine.

In his interview with Business Insider, the forecaster predicted his three most likely scenarios, with Trump taking the presidency and Republicans taking control of the Senate and House of Representatives as the most likely outcome. He said his other two most likely outcomes would be a Harris or Trump victory but a split in Congress.

The economist explained on his website why he believes a Trump victory is the more likely outcome, saying he has studied betting markets, polls and forecasts from election modelers.

Barraud said in his interview with Business Insider that a Trump presidential victory and a Republican victory in Congress would likely result in Trump implementing his domestic economic policies with corporate tax cuts, while a Trump victory but a Democratic Congress This could prompt Trump to focus more on foreign trade policy.

Choice: See how North Jersey cities voted in the 2016 and 2020 elections with our interactive maps

The forecaster wrote: “A Trump victory is expected to be associated with much more inflation than a Harris victory. This difference can be partly explained by his threats to impose tariffs, reduce immigration and offer tax cuts for both companies and households.”

Barraud expects the country's GDP to grow next year regardless of who wins the presidency.

His predictions mirror those of some polls that have Trump leading in a number of battleground states, but the predicted polls remain close. Other polls, such as those from The New York Times, have found the candidates tied in some key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia on November 3rd.

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