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The race between Harris and Trump is neck-and-neck with significant gender differences

Posted on by Kennedy
The race between Harris and Trump is neck-and-neck with significant gender differences

The latest NBC News national poll of the 2024 presidential race shows a neck-and-neck race marked by opposing forces that have helped both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in their quest for the White House.

Overall, the poll shows that in a head-to-head matchup, Harris receives the support of 49% of registered voters, while Trump receives an identical 49%. Only 2% of voters say they are unsure about the election.

Stronger for Harris: rising Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead over Trump on abortion, and an advantage for Harris on which candidate is better at serving the middle class.

Helping Trump: Two-thirds of voters believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, a positive assessment of Trump's presidency – particularly compared to President Joe Biden's current performance – and Trump's double-digit lead on the economy and cost of living.

The country's strong polarization also determines the tight competition, including a gender gap of more than 30 points that separates the voting preferences of men and women. Regardless of who wins the presidential race, 60% of voters believe the country will remain divided.

The stability of the survey should also be highlighted, as there has been little change in the competition since last month, despite the hectic campaign activity of the last few weeks and the billion-dollar advertisements.

“This is very stable data compared to where we were in October,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

“We grew further apart and chose our side,” McInturff added. “Each side is as fixed as it can be, and they don’t budge or move.”

The 49%-49% race shown in this poll is essentially the same as the October NBC News poll, when the two candidates were deadlocked at 48% each.

(Read more from NBC News pollsters about why this poll measures registered voters, not likely voters, here.)

Expanded voting that includes third-party candidates puts Trump at 47% and Harris at 46%, with a total of 7% supporting other candidates or undecided – again unchanged from October.

Given that close elections often rely on which party will turn out voters better, the NBC News poll also offers a snapshot of what could happen under even slightly different turnout scenarios.

In a slightly more favorable environment for Republicans — meaning turnout among men, white voters, and voters without a college degree is actually a few percentage points higher — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 50-48%.

But in a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — meaning a slight increase in women, college-educated white voters and voters of color turning out at the polls — these poll results show Harris leading Trump by three points, 50%-47%.

All of these results are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

But because of the country's electoral college system, the presidential contest will ultimately be decided by what happens in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And recent polls in these states find close results and little certainty.

A gender difference of 34 points

At 49% to 49%, the NBC News poll results are as close as possible. However, there are still huge differences in support for candidates between different groups.

The poll shows Harris's biggest advantages over Trump are among black voters (87% to 9%), younger voters under 30 (57% to 41%) and college-educated white voters (55% to 43%).

Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75-23%), white voters (56-42%) and white voters without a college degree (64-34%).

However, what continues to stand out as one of the defining features of the election is the enormous gender gap between Harris and Trump: women support Harris by a margin of 16 points (57% to 41%) and men support Trump by 18 points (58% –40%).

This net gender gap of 34 points is larger than the 30-point difference in the October NBC News poll.

Meanwhile, Harris has an 8 percentage point lead among independent voters, 51% to 43%. Still, it is ahead among Latino voters by only 9 points, 53% to 44%, even though the sample size here is small and the margin of error is significantly larger compared to the overall poll.

Trump is ahead on the cost of living and the border; Harris cites the issues of abortion and the middle class

As voters consider how the candidates would handle key issues and how they would match the president's characteristics, Harris continues to have a significant advantage on the issue of abortion, leading Trump by 20 points on the question of which candidate handles the issue better concerns.

Harris also leads Trump by 9 points (51-42%), with the candidate keeping a better eye on the middle class.

In contrast, Trump is in double digits when it comes to which candidate is better on the economy (51%-41%) and the cost of living (52%-40%). He also maintains his 25-point lead on securing the border and controlling immigration, which has consistently been his top concern throughout the 2024 campaign.

But voters are fundamentally divided over which candidate better represents change (46% choose Harris, 41% choose Trump), and they are divided over who is more competent and effective (47% say Trump and 45%) % say Harris).

That's a slight reversal from October, when 48% of voters said Harris would do a better job if he were more competent and effective, compared to 43% for Trump.

Biden remains a liability for the Democrats

The NBC News poll shows 41% of registered voters approve of President Joe Biden's job performance, while 58% say they disapprove.

That's a slight decline from the 43% who approved of his performance as president in October.

By comparison, when voters were asked to rate Trump's time in office, 48% approved of the former president's performance while 51% disapproved. This matches the poll's result last month – and is higher than any assessment of Trump's tenure during his term.

When voters think about what concerns them more – Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president – 41% of voters say they are more worried about Harris being Biden's path will follow, compared to 40%. who are more worried about Trump repeating the actions of his time in office.

Another 14% of voters say neither is a problem.

More than half of voters say they have already cast their vote

The poll, conducted locally through Saturday evening, also found 54% of registered voters saying they had already voted and another 11% saying they planned to vote early in the remaining days.

In this group of early voters, which makes up nearly two-thirds of the electorate, Harris leads Trump by 7 points in the straight race, 53% to 46%. That's a significant change from the last NBC News poll in 2020, when Biden was more than 20 points ahead of Trump among these voters. Trump and the Republican Party made significant efforts to encourage his supporters to vote earlier this year.

Among the 33% of voters who say they will wait until Election Day, Trump leads by 16 percentage points, 56% to 40%.

That compares to Trump's nearly 30-point lead among these voters on Election Day four years ago.

Further results of the survey

Regardless of who wins the presidential race, 60% of registered voters in the survey say the U.S. will remain divided, while 28% believe it will be more united after the election.

Harris and Trump have nearly identical popularity ratings, with 43% of voters rating Harris favorably and 50% rating him unfavorably (a net rating of -7). This compares to Trump's score of 42% positive and 51% negative (-9).

And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in power. That's basically the same as last month, when the two parties were tied on the issue last month at 47% each.

The NBC News poll was conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 among 1,000 registered voters — most of whom were contacted by cell phone — and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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